# Who makes the reducers?

> Markdown twin of https://roboterminal.app/topics/reducers · https://roboterminal.app/topics/reducers.md

## On this layer

- org — Nabtesco (5)
- org — Harmonic Drive (3)
- org — [NVIDIA](https://roboterminal.app/companies/nvidia) (3)
- org — Harmonic Drive LLC (2)
- org — Harmonic Drive Systems (2)
- org — [Tesla](https://roboterminal.app/companies/tesla) (2)
- org — Ambarella (1)
- org — Amphenol (1)
- org — Anduril (1)
- org — Bosch (1)
- org — [Boston Dynamics](https://roboterminal.app/companies/boston-dynamics) (1)
- org — cable stretch (1)
- org — Drones owned by the Pentagon (1)
- org — ELECTROMATE (1)
- regulator — europe (1)
- regulator — [Fcc](https://roboterminal.app/companies/fcc) (1)
- org — Fictiv (1)
- org — [Figure AI](https://roboterminal.app/companies/figure) (1)
- org — global cell capacity (1)
- org — global precision reducers (1)
- org — Harmonic Drive AG (1)
- org — Harmonic Drive Systems, Inc. (1)
- plant — herzogenaurach (1)
- regulator — hkex (1)
- plant — hotaka (1)
- org — humanoid production (1)
- org — Humanoid robots (1)
- org — Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (1)
- org — Leaderdrive (1)
- org — LimX Dynamics (1)
- org — market opportunity (1)
- plant — massachusetts (1)
- org — MISUMI (1)
- org — MP Materials (1)
- org — Net Profit (1)
- org — Nidec (1)
- org — Niron Magnetics (1)
- org — OpenAI (1)
- org — Overseas Sales (1)
- org — precision reduction gears (1)
- org — Red Cat Holdings (1)
- org — reducer production (1)
- org — robot manufacturing lead times (1)
- org — Saronic (1)
- org — Schaeffler (1)
- org — Schaeffler’s agreement with Humanoid (1)
- org — Shield AI (1)
- org — Skydio (1)
- org — sub-10nm logic capacity (1)
- org — Suzhou Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co., Ltd. (1)
- org — TE Connectivity (1)
- org — Texas Instruments (1)
- org — trading P/E ratio (1)
- org — TRON 2 (1)
- plant — tsu (1)
- org — VAC (1)
- org — ZiNovaLabs (1)

## Who captures

- @smsehy (8)
- NVIDIA (2)
- Nabtesco (2)
- Leaderdrive (1)
- ZiNovaLabs (1)
- @ricci_nov (1)
- Schaeffler (1)
- Tesla (1)
- Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (1)
- ELECTROMATE (1)
- @MendysRobotics (1)
- Harmonic Drive (1)

## Sourced numbers

- **market opportunity:** $0
  - _"the companies that benefit is not only be the robot manufacturers but the real picks and shovels will be the suppliers that provide the robot’s brain, eyes, muscles, joints, sensors and nervous system."_
  - Source: [@MilkRoadAI on X](https://x.com/MilkRoadAI/status/2095171515839029289)
- **Net Profit:** $70.1
  - _"attributable net profit rose 31.25% to RMB70.1 million."_
  - Source: [Leaderdrive Approves Hong Kong H-Share Plan, but HKEX Filing Is Not Yet Verified - Humanoid Analytics](https://x.com/HumanoidAn/status/2095159938821865700)
- **Overseas Sales:** $50.9
  - _"Overseas sales were RMB50.9 million, only about 14.6% of group revenue."_
  - Source: [Leaderdrive Approves Hong Kong H-Share Plan, but HKEX Filing Is Not Yet Verified - Humanoid Analytics](https://x.com/HumanoidAn/status/2095159938821865700)
- **TRON 2:** 1 units
  - _"TRON 2 serves as a modular and extensible embodied robotic platform for multi-tool, multi-step tasks across large workspaces."_
  - Source: [LimX Dynamics on X: "Together with ZINOVA's Tool Intelligence, TRON 2 takes on increasingly complex construction workflows.

@ZiNovaLabs builds on TRON 2 to explore an innovative robotic configuration for construction, demonstrating key tasks in a scaled-down tilt-up construction workflow, includi… / X](https://x.com/chris_j_paxton/status/2095114381818253768)
- **Schaeffler’s agreement with Humanoid:** 1,000,000 units
  - _"covering a seven-digit number of units."_
  - Source: [The hardest problem in physical AI may be the magnet, not the model](https://thenextweb.com/news/physical-ai-hardest-problem-magnet-not-model-crma-schaeffler)
- **precision reduction gears:** 60 units
  - _"Nabtesco states on its own site that it holds approximately 60% of the global market for the precision reduction gears in industrial robot joints."_
  - Source: [@LeoKharon on X](https://x.com/LeoKharon/status/2094515863000883546)
- **sub-10nm logic capacity:** 92 units
  - _"Roughly 92% of the world's sub-10nm logic capacity sits on one island."_
  - Source: [@LeoKharon on X](https://x.com/LeoKharon/status/2094515863000883546)
- **global cell capacity:** 80 units
  - _"Battery cells go back to China: over 80% of global cell capacity, about 99% of LFP."_
  - Source: [@LeoKharon on X](https://x.com/LeoKharon/status/2094515863000883546)
- **cable stretch:** 10,000 units
  - _"cable stretch over 10,000 continuous cycles destroys sub-millimeter precision."_
  - Source: [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2094345994028876167)
- **Humanoid robots:** 500,000 units
  - _"industry-wide estimates pointing toward roughly 500,000 units/year by 2027 across Optimus, Figure, 1X, Unitree, and others."_
  - Source: [@davidcao01 on X](https://x.com/davidcao01/status/2093825616478941207)
- **Drones owned by the Pentagon:** 200,000 units
  - _"The Pentagon's Drone Dominance Program has committed $1 billion to purchasing more than 200,000 drones by 2027, scaling to 340,000 by 2028."_
  - Source: [@davidcao01 on X](https://x.com/davidcao01/status/2093825616478941207)
- **trading P/E ratio:** $386
  - _"Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, the leading harmonic reducer maker in China, is currently trading at a 386x P/E."_
  - Source: [China Humanoid on X: "Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, the leading harmonic reducer maker in China, is currently trading at a 386x P/E." / X](https://x.com/ChinaHumanoid/status/2093352103528038807)
- **Harmonic Drive LLC:** 50 units
  - _"With over 50 years of experience, our expert engineering and production teams continually develop enabling technologies for the evolving motion control market."_
  - Source: [@Electromate on X](https://x.com/Electromate/status/2092971394367963313)
- **humanoid production:** 100,000 units
  - _"At 100,000 units per year you are competing with every industrial robot OEM on Earth for the same components."_
  - Source: [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2092788510143185317)
- **robot manufacturing lead times:** 1 units
  - _"Whole robots are copyable in a year; harmonic reducer and roller screw capacity is not - that is machine tools and years of tolerance grinding."_
  - Source: [@MendysRobotics on X](https://x.com/MendysRobotics/status/2092480825291850026)
- **reducer production:** 1,000,000 units
  - _"Scaling humanoid production to millions of units per year requires scaling reducer production by orders of magnitude."_
  - Source: [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2092416456202018976)
- **global precision reducers:** 75 units
  - _"Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco in Japan control roughly 75% of global precision reducers."_
  - Source: [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2092412496149938257)

## Pulse

- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2095756547641274685)
  Strain wave gearing and cycloidal reducers represent forty percent of humanoid bill of materials. Precision gear manufacturing tolerances dictate output volumes far more than neural network architectu…
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2095754100168331434)
  Designing high-density forearms requires co-locating miniature planetary reducers, brushless motor stators, and motor control PCBs within a rigid thermal sleeve capable of shedding heat during continu…
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2095710954361409749)
  The hand and forearm expose the real physical limits of miniature motor winding, high-ratio planetary gearing, and thermal dissipation inside a 25mm joint envelope. Volume manufacturing only works whe…
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2095439811717021706)
  Expanding precision gear manufacturing from automotive transmissions to high-ratio robotics reducers leverages existing metallurgy and tooth grinding capacity to capture the emerging physical AI suppl…
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2095439443507511661)
  Commercial availability by 2027 requires locking in Tier 1 automotive supplier agreements for frameless torque motors, precision planetary reducers, and safety-certified power distribution architectur…
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2095438732262608989)
  Low-cost open-source hardware democratizes reinforcement learning experimentation, but transitioning from hobbyist platforms to industrial automation requires hardened bearings, precision reducers, an…
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2095438090810872226)
  Co-locating autonomy model training on shared cluster infrastructure proves that vehicle perception pipelines directly subsidize humanoid physical AI. The hardware challenge remains sourcing precision…
- [@MilkRoadAI on X](https://x.com/MilkRoadAI/status/2095171515839029289)
  Sam Altman is saying that OpenAI plans to build a humanoid robot, along with other designs because the world around us was built for humans (Save this). Doors, stairs, computers, tools, kitchens, vehi…
- [Leaderdrive Approves Hong Kong H-Share Plan, but HKEX Filing Is Not Yet Verified - Humanoid Analytics](https://x.com/HumanoidAn/status/2095159938821865700)
  Close Menu - Companies - Company Tracker - Deployment Tracker - Funding Tracker - Deployments - Technology - Funding - Markets - Our Services X (Twitter) Mastodon LinkedIn Switch to Dark Design - easi…
- [LimX Dynamics on X: "Together with ZINOVA's Tool Intelligence, TRON 2 takes on increasingly complex construction workflows.

@ZiNovaLabs builds on TRON 2 to explore an innovative robotic configuration for construction, demonstrating key tasks in a scaled-down tilt-up construction workflow, includi… / X](https://x.com/chris_j_paxton/status/2095114381818253768)
  Post Log in Sign up Post LimX Dynamics on X: "Together with ZINOVA's Tool Intelligence, TRON 2 takes on increasingly complex construction workflows. @ZiNovaLabs builds on TRON 2 to explore an innovati…
- [@ricci_nov on X](https://x.com/ricci_nov/status/2094541430148431935)
  A TAM revised 5x without a shipping product means the assumptions moved, not the market — and every dollar in that curve sits past 2030, which is beyond the horizon of any semi order book being writte…
- [The hardest problem in physical AI may be the magnet, not the model](https://thenextweb.com/news/physical-ai-hardest-problem-magnet-not-model-crma-schaeffler)
  Skip to content AI Learning and Artificial Intelligence Credit: Canva Actuators account for 40% to 60% of a humanoid robot’s bill of materials and China refines roughly 90% of the rare earth magnets i…
- [@LeoKharon on X](https://x.com/LeoKharon/status/2094515863000883546)
  Robotics deep dive: HUMANOID CHOKEPOINTS Almost every supply-chain post about humanoids has one country in it. Trace five critical inputs one at a time and they land in four different places. Magnets …
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2094345994028876167)
  Tendon-driven actuation solves thermal mass and packing density in dexterous hands, but cable stretch over 10,000 continuous cycles destroys sub-millimeter precision. Modeling hysteresis in simulation…
- [@davidcao01 on X](https://x.com/davidcao01/status/2093825616478941207)
  The Supply Chain Shortage for UxV and Robots: Who Is Filling the Gap? Top 20 Components to Watch | New suppliers from Mexico, Taiwan, Japan, Korean | The VC and Entrepreneurs Angle Two weeks apart, tw…
- [China Humanoid on X: "Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, the leading harmonic reducer maker in China, is currently trading at a 386x P/E." / X](https://x.com/ChinaHumanoid/status/2093352103528038807)
  Post Log in Sign up Post China Humanoid on X: "Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, the leading harmonic reducer maker in China, is currently trading at a 386x P/E." - China Humanoid @ChinaHumanoid Leader…
- [@Electromate on X](https://x.com/Electromate/status/2092971394367963313)
  High-Performance Gearheads for Servo and Stepper Motors HarmonicPlanetary® HPGP / HPG / HPN / HPF / HPG Helical HarmonicDrive® CSG-GH / CSF-GH Sold & Serviced by: ELECTROMATE Toll Free Phone: (877) SE…
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2092788510143185317)
  Scaling production is the correct framing. But the binding constraint is not the assembly line. It is the actuator supply chain. Each humanoid needs 20 to 30 precision reducers. Nabtesco and Harmonic …
- [@MendysRobotics on X](https://x.com/MendysRobotics/status/2092480825291850026)
  @BarrettYouTube The component supply chain half is the part that actually compounds. Whole robots are copyable in a year; harmonic reducer and roller screw capacity is not - that is machine tools and …
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2092416456202018976)
  The supply chain concentration in precision reducers is the part most people underestimate. Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco built their positions over decades of iteration on gear tooth profiles, lubricat…
- [@smsehy on X](https://x.com/smsehy/status/2092412496149938257)
  The picks and shovels framing is right but most people name the wrong shovels. NVIDIA gets the attention. Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco in Japan control roughly 75% of global precision reducers. Every h…

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Source: Roboterminal · https://roboterminal.app/topics/reducers.md