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What changed, and what is the evidence.
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What changed, and what is the evidence.
Oct 21, 2026 · Post · posted
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Expert Takeaways: Memory A manager at tier-1 server manufacturer says memory demand increased 15-25% YoY in Q3 and is expected to grow the same amount in 2027. Sees memory constraint persisting through 2029-2030. $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY |
This.... https://t.co/LIhjmesDvo |
The industry believes SK Hynix' HBM4 shipments fell short of initial expectations in the third quarter. According to the industry on the 21st, SK hynix's third-quarter operating profit consensus (the average forecast by brokerages) is… |
$MU $SNDK $SKHY $NBIS Nomura’s memory team just put out a really interesting note on the AI scare, the numbers underneath are some of the strongest I’ve seen in this drawdown. Nomura sees AI going from 10GW of data center power in 2025 to… |
DS Investment & Securities: Memory If 3-year cumulative DRAM ASP falls by ~32% and NAND by ~39%, companies can structurally maintain 80% to 90% of their peak 2027 operating profits. Supplier contracts and HBM mix improvements prevent sharp… |
CXMT shares fall 7.8% despite record 9-month profit The market reaction came after the company forecast a record net income of up to US$19.8 billion for the first nine months of 2026, as the domestic chip champion cashed in on artificial… |
SK hynix backend equipment for HBM4 slipped from 2026 delivery to 2027, per Dealsite; shares fell five straight sessions, down over 11%. Two readings: MR-MUF injection trouble at tighter JEDEC die spacing, or DRAM margins paying better.… |
"Intel is 80% done." That is how Lip Bu Tan described the turnaround at $INTC in a new interview with Nikkei. Since taking over in March 2025, he has replaced most of the senior leadership team, including bringing in the former CEO of SK… |
Samsung raised its 32GB DDR5 price from $149 to $239 in September. That's a 60 percent jump in one month, and it isn't the top of the curve. Contract DRAM pricing more than doubled this year, from about $7 a unit to $19.50, and Gartner is… |
Memory stocks just lost about $738 BILLION in market value. According to Goldman Sachs, shares of the major memory makers fell between 11% and 26% after China's CXMT announced its new DRAM cell architecture. SK Hynix fell about 25%.… |
Samsung is teaming up with its biggest foundry rival to build Nvidia's next memory chip. According to Korean media, Samsung will use $TSM's 3nm process for the base die in $NVDA's custom NVHBM, at Nvidia's request. The base die is the… |
DRAM spot pricing ⬆️ SK Hynix and Samsung market cap ⬇️ $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY https://t.co/vx6FIle8j2 |
Every major memory maker says it's sold out through 2027, demand described as extremely strong, and the stock prices did not get that memo this month. Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix and Western Digital have all taken turns falling since October… |
Kospi closed -7.57%, circuit breakers on Kospi and Kosdaq. SK hynix -11.1%, Samsung -9.5%; foreigners net sold 3.62tn won while domestic institutions bought. Trigger: CXMT's 4F2 DRAM claim — commodity DRAM, not HBM, per analysts. Crowded… |
China's biggest DRAM maker is printing money. CXMT expects about ¥131 billion in net profit for the first nine months of 2026. A year earlier it lost ¥5.3 billion. Quarterly revenue went from ¥6.1 billion in Q1 2025 to an estimated ¥115 to… |
Dan Ives on memory demand: "I just landed from Korea and we're seeing memory chip demand/supply 13 to 1." For every 1 unit of memory capacity available, buyers are requesting for 13 units. Via @CNBC $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY |
A US class action alleges Samsung, SK hynix and Micron coordinated DRAM pricing, and that each AI HBM bit cost about three bits of regular DRAM. These are unproven allegations: no certified class, no liability found. Wafer conversion math… |
Michael Dell just told the Wall Street Journal that the memory crunch is going to get WORSE. On CNBC this week he said supply and demand get worse next year, and when asked about memory he called it "maybe a four year problem because… |
Global smartphone shipments just had their WORST quarter on record. IDC says shipments fell about 22% in Q3 to 255.3 million units. Memory costs driven by AI demand are crushing phone makers. Chinese brands got hit the hardest, while… |
According to Korean media, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are speeding up their in house AI chips. That could open up a SECOND group of HBM buyers beyond $NVDA. Microsoft's Maia 300 is expected to ship more than 1 MILLION units next… |
Expert call covering semiconductor testing & memory - HBM test intensity, Advantest vs. Teradyne competitive dynamics, probe card demand, and CXMT localization progress. $MU $TER $SKHY $DRAM https://t.co/bdBOWkmthz |
SK Hynix conditions new US factory on more US chip equipment exports to China, sources say @pstAsiatech This is clearly a "common sense" approach to this issue. https://t.co/sXL2R8V9B5 |
Back-end equipment for SK Hynix's HBM4 may slip from 2H26 into 2027, per DigiTimes, as conventional DRAM tightens. The same capacity shift has DDR4 contract prices rising faster than DDR5. HBM versus commodity DRAM is no longer a one-way… |
DIGITIMES: Nvidia's next-generation Rubin AI accelerators are expected to rely predominantly on 12-layer HBM4 high-bandwidth memory, despite reports that the chipmaker has asked Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to increase supplies of… |
China will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028 https://t.co/RiBFTe6JIC |
SK Hynix is seeking approval from Washington to export US chipmaking equipment to China to increase production there as a condition for building a factory in the US. $SKHY $DRAM $EWY https://t.co/FHDZ4SFAe0 |
A financial column published in South Korea now warns of memory oversupply in 2029, after new capacity comes online. They argue Korea has only 2-3 years to develop new growth industries before the cycle potentially reverses. $DRAM $MU… |
J.P. Morgan: accumulated HBM shortage reaching 23 weeks by CY28 and industry HBM TAM at ~$160B/~$280B in CY27/28 (from ~$64B in CY26). $DRAM $EWY $MU $SKHY |
SK Hynix, Micron confront AI memory bottlenecks with HBM standardization, chip integration AI infrastructure expansion is shifting semiconductor competition beyond individual chip performance towards memory bandwidth, data-transfer power… |
Two Korean firms hold 83% of global memory. SK Hynix broke ground on a $4B packaging plant in Indiana in August; Samsung more than doubled its HBM share in a year. Rhodium notes Nvidia's allocation decisions still set HBM share. The buyer… |
Bloomberg Intelligence expects the HBM market reaching $641 billion by 2030, up from a previous forecast of $260 billion. BI expects HBM3E and HBM4 prices to jump 30–45% in 2027 and estimate that the average HBM price will rise from $15.46… |
Elon is saying Micron has been reasonable with future memory prices while the others have been extortionate 😮 Elon doesn't like what Samsung and SK Hynix are doing in terms of pricing... $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY https://t.co/nJBQXyVfrb |
Damnang not only has good writing, but good visuals! This is a great visual showing the difference in HBM4 between Samsung and SK Hynix. Please have a read at this article! https://t.co/OMa9Q1boO6 https://t.co/vrxucwF34V |
$SPY finished basically flat today, closing at $778.01 for a 0.01% loss after dipping as low as $775.95 earlier in the session as chip stocks sold off. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. Memory stocks got hit again on worries… |
$SNDK $MU $SKHY FUD runs fast but never far. This reminds me of what happened to the memory trade at the beginning of the year. https://t.co/q39a12yTgI |
Memory fundamentals are still very strong (stronger than Q1). $MU CEO: - "We expect memory and storage supply demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026." - "We do not have line of sight to when… |
China’s CXMT makes progress in chip design pursued by Samsung, SK Hynix This is how the industry works.... https://t.co/U1t5w7XxHo |
$AMAT just opened the largest joint chip research facility in the world, and all the major chipmakers are in it. The EPIC Center in Sunnyvale, California covers about 600,000 square feet, with nearly four acres of cleanroom space. Spending… |
SK hynix put 100+ in-house H-TPU cores in an SSD controller. Each draws ~2.5% of the power and 4% of the area of a general-purpose CPU core. It feeds Storage Next, which addresses 512-byte units, an eighth of the usual 4KB. Storage is… |
The chip sell off just spread across ALL of Asia. South Korea's KOSPI is down about 6% and has dropped below 6,000. Japan's Nikkei is down about 2.6%, and MSCI's Asia Pacific index outside Japan is down about 2%, according to Reuters. Not… |
Samsung's HBM4E has reportedly cleared validation, and forecasts cited by DigiTimes have it overtaking SK hynix as the largest HBM supplier in 2027 as HBM4 prices climb and DRAM capacity stays tight. Both show HBM4E cooling at SEDEX this… |
Goldman Sachs is now forecasting a 4.9 percent DRAM undersupply for 2026, and the mechanism behind that number matters more than the headline. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron aren't short on fab capacity. They're reallocating it. HBM for AI… |
Memory market spot prices: DRAM: > 4Gb DDR4: +274% > 4Gb DDR3: +243% > 16Gb DDR5: +100% > 8Gb DDR4: +92% > 16Gb DDR4: +30% NAND / Storage: > 256Gb Wafer: +167% > 512GB SSD: +144% > 512Gb Wafer: +44% $SNDK $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY |
Chey Tae-won, chairperson of SK Group, wants to speed up chip plant expansion to avoid losing memory market share in Korea. He said, "If Chinese companies or U.S. Micron expand faster, Korea's market share will shrink," adding, "There is… |
Check out this expert call if you want to learn more about HBF — vendor strategies, HBF vs. HBM in inference, key technical hurdles, and the roadmap for Edge AI. $SNDK $SKHY https://t.co/rPamm0UlFt |
SK hynix paid $8.8 BILLION for Intel's NAND business in 2021 and now it could be worth over 10x that. According to Korean media, Solidigm has reportedly picked Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead a United States IPO at a valuation… |
Chosunbiz and Seoul Economic Daily report forecasts of humanoid-robot DRAM demand growing 20-fold by 2030, opening a new market for Samsung and SK Hynix. A forecast, not an order book. Memory demand is acquiring a second leg outside AI… |
Every Robotaxi and Optimus bot needs memory to turn AI models into real-world action. As Tesla scales production, locking down that memory supply is becoming a critical pillar of its manufacturing strategy—and that’s precisely why Terafab… |
SK hynix holds ~50% of HBM in 2026 but had no hybrid-bonded samples in production as of Oct 8. An Oct 7 industry report says Samsung shipped samples first; generation and customers unconfirmed. Samsung's share is reported at 33%, Micron… |
ASML has sent a 10% price hike proposal to Samsung and SK Hynix on every spare part it sells. $ASML https://t.co/SVp67C9bw0 |
Per TechPowerUp, SK hynix is reportedly struggling with hybrid bonding for next-generation HBM and trails Samsung on sample progress. Unconfirmed, and no yield numbers are public. But if it holds, the bonding step, not the DRAM node,… |
Here is an expert call that touches on memory supply and price increases. $MU $DRAM $EWY https://t.co/qtaUUd7JV8 |
Expert Call | Memory Research — DRAM/NAND Supply Contraction and Price Increases, HBM Capacity Crowd |
Memory suppliers are finally acknowledging our HBM de-spec call. SK Hynix publicly said 16-hi is difficult, and the market is now prioritizing bandwidth over capacity. Hybrid bonding’s case in HBM was always stack height, and at 4-hi and… |
According to an expert, YMTC's eSSD products have been getting trialed by domestic customers due to tight capacity at leading overseas OEMs; however, data center customers still prioritize eSDDs from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. $MU… |
Expert Takeaways: Samsung > Samsung's Production & Sourcing Shift: Samsung is reallocating 10%+ of its 1c node capacity from LPDDR5X to HBM by 2027, while its mobile division relies on a multi-supplier strategy rather than prioritizing… |
AI agents will trigger the largest CPU supercycle in history. Mizuho estimates agentic CPU sockets will surge from 1.3 million in 2026 to 16 million by 2030. Including head node processors, AI could drive nearly half of all server CPU… |
One of the hardest parts of the memory trade is picking the stock. Forecasts have global memory chip revenue going from $200b in 2025 to over $700B in 2027. That's more than triple in two years. The demand side is easy to see. Every AI… |
Mirae Asset Securities: SK Hynix > 12-Hi HBM4 replaced by 8-Hi is a way to stretch constrained supply; allow more stacks to be supplied. > HBM3E supplied for big tech companies has room for price increases in 2027. > Industry is bringing… |
Bernstein: AI server supply chain $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $TSM $MU $AMKR $GOOGL |
According to Damnang's expert call, SK Hynix is facing technical difficulties in developing hybrid bonding for HBM while Samsung has already sent samples to customers. $MU $DRAM $EWY https://t.co/VwdJ67FMX8 https://t.co/cJRfZWOHA9 |
$SKHY $MU $SNDK Memory per GPU is going up, and the math is getting silly. The fear with memory at these prices has always been "de-spec," the idea that chip designers respond to expensive memory by using less of it. BofA's memory team is… |
AI & TECH STOCK MARKET REVIEW The 10 biggest stories from today: 1. $NVDA hit another ATH and is close to becoming the first company ever worth $6 trillion. The stock is up ~28% this year, adding ~$1.2 trillion in market cap, making Nvidia… |
I had the chance to check out J.P. Morgan's latest Memory Market Update and it only made me more bullish on $MU and $SNDK. Memory bears are running out of years to be right. Micron now sees supply tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026,… |
BOOM 🚨 Just hours after announcing a massive memory cut, Elon Musk revealed a quick hardware pivot: Tesla is nudging the AI5 chip's onboard RAM up from 72GB to 96GB of LPDDR5 💥 This puts the new configuration right in the sweet… |
Daishin Securities: Samsung Electronics There are customers requesting 10-year contracts, it is judged that extension contracts have been successfully concluded with some customers. $MU $DRAM $EWY $DISK $SKHY |
Samsung and SK hynix are about to make an absurd amount of money and South Korea’s export data just revealed why. South Korea’s semiconductor exports surged 259.4% year over year to a record $34.1 billion during the first 20 days of… |
🇨🇳 China’s leading memory-chip maker, CXMT, says its fifth-generation chip platform has entered mass production, marking a new step in the country’s push to expand domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The company also unveiled two… |
Chip exports from SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have surged to record highs in September. In the first 20 days of September, South Korea's total exports rose by 14.9%, compared to 7.2% in August. Chip exports accounted for ~60% of the… |
UBS Group estimates that memory-related spending will surge from $71 billion in 2025 to $367 billion this year, reaching $923 billion by 2027. The remaining AI-related costs are projected at $631 billion in 2026, then decline to $525… |
Preliminary September 2026 semiconductor export statistics (covering Sept 1–20): Total Memory Export Value: $21.501 billion (+350.7% YoY, +8.2% MoM) Unit Price: $82,467/kg (+277.3% YoY, -13.9% MoM) DRAM Export Value: $10.644 billion… |
🇨🇳 Chinese chipmaker CXMT announced that its fifth-generation DRAM memory chip platform has entered mass production. This milestone could position it as a stronger rival to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron globally. The new platform packs… |
HBM export unit price dropped for the first time in 5 months Average export price fell by 3.6% to $73.39 last month. According to Lee Jong-hwan, a professor of System Semiconductor Engineering at Sangmyung University, the decline could be… |
This is one of the important chart in the entire memory market (Save this). For two decades, DRAM prices followed the red dotted line, a steady, relentless decline driven by Moore's Law and more efficient manufacturing. That red dotted… |
Can China’s New Memory Chips Challenge Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron? https://t.co/EG9lEe4p9y |
Citi: HBM Demand Outlook > Massive Market Growth: Total HBM demand is projected to surge exponentially, jumping from just 736 (1Gb eq.) in 2021 to a staggering 126,990 by 2028. > Nvidia Dominates Demand: Nvidia remains the primary driver… |
Excellent visuals from Skylab Intelligence showing how fast memory chip exports have rises. South Korea's DRAM exports have risen by 501.4% YoY. $MU $DRAM $DISK $EWY $SKHY $SNDK https://t.co/WQaQp9yCrE https://t.co/p0vDc2gor0 |
HSBC: Server DRAM prices should continue rising amid strong demand for AI and general servers. $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY |
SK Hynix is building a NAND fab in the US. Memory is so tight right now they're expanding into the most expensive place to build. $SKHY https://t.co/wiZ55ixBnX |
RBC Capital on Micron: "our Asia supply chain conversations point to 80-100% HBM price increases for 2027, which should remain a tailwind to blended DRAM ASPs." $MU $SKHY $EWY $DRAM |
Omdia: Memory > DRAM industry revenue is forecast to reach $372 billion in 2026, representing a staggering 147% year over year growth, while NAND revenue is projected to hit a record $300 billion, up 311% year over year. > Memory accounts… |
SK hynix showed PIM, HBF and SALT-KV at AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara, per DigiTimes, as inference splits between latency-sensitive services and capacity-heavy long-context work. The GPU-HBM pair was one product; two workload shapes… |
Citi: we expect server DRAM demand to grow more than 50% YoY in 2027E, with eSSDs demand rising ~50% YoY. Server DRAM demand should rise alongside growing CPU demand. $MU $DRAM $DISK $EWY $SKHY $SNDK |
Jensen Huang just mapped out the chain of companies needed to power the AI revolution (Save this). His message is that AI is becoming a new industrial system that requires manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, financing and an enormous… |
KB Securities: as of September, no sign of orders slowing down from major customers for memory. Memory makers' inventories are at an all-time low (under 10 days) with supply tightening further in 2027. $GOOGL $MU $SKHY $SNDK $AMZN $META… |
Citi: HBM S/D situation expected to get significantly worse in 2028. 2026E: -22% 2027E: -21% 2028E: -36% $MU $DRAM $DISK $SKHY $EWY |
Citi: Memory Citi expects memory undersupply conditions to extend through 2031. HBM & DRAM Projections Surging HBM Demand: HBM bit demand is projected to jump 62% YoY in 2027 (to 75.2B gigabits) and 69% YoY in 2028 (to 127.0B gigabits).… |
Bloomberg: DRAM shortage may last until 2030 "A recent analysis by Bloomberg indicates that as long as global cloud computing giants continue to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, the tight DRAM supply and demand situation will persist… |
Goldman Sachs: HBM Pricing Following discussions with investors in Toronto, Boston, New York, and San Francisco, Goldman Sachs found that North American investors are generally more optimistic about memory than Asian investors. Goldman… |
According to the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, the technology gap between South Korea and China in memory chips has narrowed to 3 years in HBM, 2 years in DRAM and 1 year in NAND flash. A gap once estimated at more than five… |
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics operating profit estimates have been revised up for Q3. "Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit estimate is tallied at around 114 trillion won. That is up 12.2836 trillion won (12%) from the… |
BofA says SK Hynix to reach % HBM to DRAM sales of 35% in 2030E, up from 18% in 2026. $DRAM $DISK $MU $SKHY $EWY https://t.co/Kk3nX8QOg1 |
Samsung will fabricate a custom AI chip for OpenAI — likely the successor to Jalapeno, designed with Broadcom and fabbed by TSMC. The two will also co-develop memory for Stargate, where SK Hynix already sits. OpenAI is splitting its custom… |
Breaking: Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund is buying back into its former positions Situational Awareness placed options bets on: • AMD $AMD • Bloom Energy $BE • CoreWeave $CRWV • SK Hynix $SKHY • SanDisk $SNDK • Roundhill Memory ETF $DRAM… |
AI inference is about to create a second trillion dollar supply chain because inference is expected to rise from 30% of demand in 2023 to 75% by 2030 (Save this). That means every chatbot, coding assistant, search engine and AI agent will… |
CXMT reportedly posted an 82% EBIT margin in Q2 2026, ahead of SK hynix at 76% and Samsung's chip unit at 70%, with revenue up tenfold year on year. Unconfirmed. The opening is the commodity DRAM gap left by HBM4 conversions - the Korean… |
Preliminary Exports | September 10, 2026 Based on figures from the 1st to the 10th of each month DRAM: +529% Y/Y, +79% M/M MCP (HBM): +293% Y/Y, +87% M/M MLCC: +38% Y/Y, +65% M/M $MU $DRAM $DISK $EWY $SKHY |
J.P. Morgan: SK Hynix to sustain HBM market leadership, above 40% revenue share next year. HBM ASP forecasted to increase by 48% vs 35% previously in FY27. $SKHY $DRAM $MU $DISK $EWY |
🚨Leopold/Situational Awareness returns? Since last Friday, there's been a string of significant Flex calls bought in concentrated AI names: $315M total options premiums / $1.1B of delta / $5.8M of vega. Positions: - $SNDK: Jan 2040/2200… |
Analyst Mehdi Hosseini at Susquehanna on memory prices: "Average DRAM price will rise 50% in the third quarter of this year, followed by an additional 20% in the fourth quarter. He expected NAND flash to see an even larger increase. The… |