UBS

UBS: We estimate SpaceX will need to spend ~$350B to hit its target for 13GW. $SPCX

UBS: 6-inch substrates should remain tight through 2030 because only Sumitomo Electric and AXT can mass-produce at stable quality. However, for mature 2 4 inch substrates, Chinese entrants may eventually erode the advantage of scale alone.…

UBS: InP demand from the industry and data is expected to continue rising through 2030. $AXTI

The industry believes SK Hynix' HBM4 shipments fell short of initial expectations in the third quarter. According to the industry on the 21st, SK hynix's third-quarter operating profit consensus (the average forecast by brokerages) is…

UBS: WFE suppliers are preparing for 30%+ annual growth for the foreseeable future, with parts of the supply chain being asked to support a potential $500B/year WFE market. $LRCX $AMAT $ONTO $KLAC $MKSI $NVMI

UBS: active devise supply chain $MRVL $GOOGL $AMZN $AVGO $TSEM $NVDA

UBS has revised their memory spend % of top 12 hyperscaler capex from 63% to 66% in 2027, or ~$961 billion. For reference, top 12 hyperscaler capex in 2026 is projected to be roughly $1 trillion. Can you imagine...2027 capex on MEMORY…

UBS: We expect Kioxia to sustain industry-leading NAND margins versus key peers through CY26-27 due to structural advantages in terms of the manufacturing cost per GB. We expect NAND supply shortages to persists through 2027 while QoQ…

UBS says Kioxia has restricted LTAs to 3-year durations and capped committed volumes at approximately 50%, to benefit from potential price increases relative to competitors. $SNDK $DRAM $EWY https://t.co/TKpVvHmTvb https://t.co/3KFIQerde0

UBS: Spot prices for 4-inch indium phosphide substrates climbed from around RMB4,400 to RMB7,000 per unit in September 2026. InP substrate is getting more expensive... $AXTI

UBS: AI power TAM growing to $91.1 billion by 2030E, up from $17.7 billion in 2026E. Of the $91.1 billion, $49 billion dedicated to GPU power TAM, while the other $42 billion for ASIC. $GOOGL $MSFT $META $ORCL $NVDA $AMD $AMZN

Apple's first foldable iPhone is officially here, and it is the MOST expensive iPhone ever made. Preorders for the iPhone Duo opened this morning at $1,999, with first deliveries and in store availability starting October 23. Within…

UBS: "EMIB-T execution is also better than feared. As we've been flagging, Ibiden's yield improvement is ahead of plan and have reached the ~50% target for mass production." $INTC

UBS: Server DRAM Total DRAM Demand (mn Gb): > 2024: 73,831 (+25.1% YoY) > 2025: 118,088 (+59.9% YoY) > 2026E: 177,057 (+49.9% YoY) > 2027E: 324,124 (+83.1% YoY) $MU $DRAM $EWY

UBS: CoPoS vs EMIB-T Supply Chain $AMAT $AMKR $KLAC $LRCX

UBS: "As a reminder, for C2027 we anticipate ~50GW of compute shipments (requiring ~57GW of powered data center including PUE factor) against current visibility for ~38GW of powered shell when excluding early-stage power plant projects. In…

$SPY bounced back today, up about 0.6% to around $779 after two straight losing sessions, as the OpenAI revenue scare cooled off and oil prices eased. Here are the top stories of the day. 1. Bloomberg reported OpenAI still expects at least…

CPO Testing is extremely critical: "Testing remains a key bottleneck, creating a new equipment opportunity beginning in 2027E. We expect initial CPO volumes in 2027, followed by broader adoption in 2028. Testing remains one of the key…

UBS: Samsung and Taiyo Yuden had seen the largest ASP increase in the month of August for MLCCs, at 68% and 60%, respectively.

UBS: memory as % of VR200/VR300 BOM costs to be 68% and 62%, respectively. $NVDA

A good overview by UBS of the market participants in humanoid robot related sectors $MSFT $NVDA $QCOM $AVGO $MU $AMZN https://t.co/A0yxpRgeLh

UBS Group estimates that memory-related spending will surge from $71 billion in 2025 to $367 billion this year, reaching $923 billion by 2027. The remaining AI-related costs are projected at $631 billion in 2026, then decline to $525…

UBS: total AI server racks estimated to grow to 428,299 in 2027E before steadily declining. Most of the server racks to be dominated by AI ASIC. $NVDA $AMD $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META

UBS: Supply Chain Lead Time Power Semiconductors: 6-12 months Backup Power Systems: 10-18 months Switch Gear: 10-18 months Power Transformers: 36-42 months Gas Turbines: 2-7 years $GEV $TXN $NXPI $ADI $WOLF $ON $STM

UBS: we forecast the AI power semis TAM growing to ~$15 billion in 2030E, up from ~$3.5 billion in 2026E. $TXN $STM $MCHP $WOLF $ADI $NXPI

UBS: Regarding AMD's engagement with Google, our view is it should be related to a custom CPU project and not directly related to the TPU v10 project MediaTek has been engaged with. $AMD $GOOGL

UBS: On Intel’s EMIB-T, industry feedback is positive regarding the yield improvement and overall execution, consistent with what we highlighted in July. We are constructive on EMIB-T’s supply supporting >2m substrate volume for MediaTek’s…

UBS: the industry is progressing toward mass production for scale-out from now through 2027, hybrid scale up in 2028-29, and full CPO scale up in 2029-30. $LITE $COHR $NVDA $AMD $AAOI

The memory stocks run up is just getting started and here is why. This chart shows that Nvidia could account for a smaller percentage of total HBM demand in 2027, falling from 58% in 2026 to 41% but this does not mean Nvidia’s memory…

Micron is heading toward one of the most profitable semiconductor runs in history. UBS projects its revenue could reach nearly $379 billion by fiscal 2028, with profits approaching an unbelievable $286 billion. That is an extremely bullish…

This UBS estimate that China is 15 years behind on EUV needs some caveats. First, information is very hard to get on China’s EUV efforts—for a reason. All estimates have large error bars. Second, this estimate seems based on where ASML was…