2026-09-04 · Professional · Ian Lapham
Actuators are 56 percent. Skip the headline humanoid.
Citrini already quantified the Optimus stack. The trade narrows to motion control. We keep the names that actually cut metal.
If actuators are more than half the bill, the OEM equity is a call on execution. The reducer and servo names are a call on volume that already exists.
Industrial arms already buy this stack. Humanoids are an increment on a book that ships today.
Harmonic and Nabtesco do not need a consumer humanoid to print. Six-axis arms already consume strain-wave and RV reducers at scale. A humanoid program that actually ramps is torque on that same book.
maxon and the mid-tier BLDC houses sit one layer down. Watch lead times out of Switzerland and the PRD, not the keynote.
NVIDIA remains the compute default on anything that is not Tesla. Jetson is not the story. The story is whether the policy fit on the Jetson without a second board.
What we do not do in this note: a price target, a buy list, a 2028 unit forecast. The floor question is simpler. Who cut metal this week?
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