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What changed, and what is the evidence.
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Timeline
What changed, and what is the evidence.
Oct 22, 2026 · Funding · posted
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The headline out of Anthropic's expected S-1 this week will be the valuation, something north of $2 trillion depending on which leaked number you trust. The filing itself, once it's public, will show something more useful than that. The… |
BofA: TrendForce states Nvidia's AI-server share moderates from 66.9% in CY26 to 62.6% in CY27 as “Others” rises from 26.0% to 29.6%. Custom ASICs increase from 26.1% to 29.6% of AI server shipments, led by hyperscaler programs. $NVDA… |
$MU $SNDK $SKHY $NBIS Nomura’s memory team just put out a really interesting note on the AI scare, the numbers underneath are some of the strongest I’ve seen in this drawdown. Nomura sees AI going from 10GW of data center power in 2025 to… |
Nice constraint map and the major names involved at each layer 👍 do check it out. $AVGO $LITE $MRVL $MU $AXTI $WDC https://t.co/PL5odHUzZc https://t.co/WOkP0IkIDP |
Jefferies: our checks indicate OpenAI has recently increased its demand for custom ASICs to 3+ million units in 2027E (much higher than previous assumption of 1 million units). We also think that Anthropic has launched the first ASIC… |
$SPY rose 0.48% to $766.91 today, with AI and chip stocks leading a bounce after last week's selloff. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. Chip stocks bounced back as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 2% to snap an… |
TrendForce: MediaTek’s Google TPU v9 Shipments May Slip to 1Q28 Google’s TPU v9 project, involving MediaTek, could see its tape-out delayed until January 2027 following design revisions, with shipments potentially pushed back to the first… |
We're about to witness the BIGGEST infrastructure spending boom in human history. According to Morgan Stanley, hyperscalers and neoclouds are projected to spend a staggering $1.58 TRILLION in 2027 and $1.81 TRILLION in 2028 when operating… |
UBS: active devise supply chain $MRVL $GOOGL $AMZN $AVGO $TSEM $NVDA |
Keybanc: We believe Marvell is likely to win Maia 400 over Mediatek and Broadcom. Maia 300 is expected to be in MP in 1H27 with ~500K unit shipments next year, while Maia 400 is expected to ramp in 1H28. $MRVL $MSFT |
Anthropic told an IMF panel this week that Claude already does 26 percent of the work that goes into training Anthropic's next models, up from 3 percent in April and zero in January. Sellitto's number for next year is 80 to 90 percent.… |
Expert call covering optical components & datacom – 800G/1.6T adoption, Coherent vs. Lumentum vs. Asian module suppliers, AI cluster optical density, and Q4/2027 pricing & volume outlook. $COHR $LITE $AVGO $CIEN https://t.co/luiomEqhpg |
InP substrate supply chain $LITE $COHR $AXTI $AVGO $AAOI |
Mizuho: We believe Jalapeño ramps in DecQ, 2027E potentially at ~1.9M units/1.3GW growing to ~7M+ units/5GW in 2028E, potentially becoming AVGO's 2nd-largest customer. $AVGO |
According to Keybanc, Intel has secured design wins and has effectively secured firm commitments from several additional foundry customers including Broadcom (networking switch) and Google (server CPU). $INTC $AVGO $GOOG… |
HSBC: ASIC will account 57% of total HBM demand by 2028e (from 31% in 2025) $GOOGL $MU $MRVL $META $MSFT $AVGO $AMZN |
OpenAI just lost the man in charge of its entire COMPUTE buildout. Sachin Katti, who led OpenAI's infrastructure and Stargate data center push, announced he is leaving to build something newm, his last day is November 15 and he will stay… |
$SPY fell 1.1% today to around $769 after dropping as low as $766.71, as a hot inflation report pushed rate hike odds higher and hit AI stocks. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. September CPI came in at 3.7% from a year ago… |
Expert Takeaways: Meta's Optical Demand > Meta signed a $6B deal with Corning for MPO fiber cables to power its next-gen AI data center infrastructure. > Zhongji, Eoptolink, and Cohr lead Meta’s optical supply chain, with new entrants… |
Celestica's DS6005 puts optics on the switch package: 102.4Tbps, 64 ports of 1.6TbE, Broadcom Tomahawk 6-Davisson with 16 optical engines at 6.4Tbps each. Broadcom claims 70% lower optical interconnect power, 3.5x below pluggables. CPO is… |
$SPY finished basically flat today, closing at $778.01 for a 0.01% loss after dipping as low as $775.95 earlier in the session as chip stocks sold off. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. Memory stocks got hit again on worries… |
Hock Tan and Lip-Bu Tan at DBS Bank Conference: Hock Tan: "Most companies out there cannot find any bloody return on investment, im telling you, people are just wasting money, spending tokens, trying to understand." Lip-Bu Tan: "If you… |
J.P. Morgan is forecasting a ~300GW shortfall in global AI compute by 2031E. $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $MSFT $META $AVGO $AMZN https://t.co/iZrvcU2svc https://t.co/yzzhhhEN7G |
If you have time, go play around with this interactive website to see the parts inside Nvidia's Vera Rubin. Great work by @benitoz He also has supply chain mapping 🔥 Link in replies 👇 $NVDA $MU $GOOGL $MRVL $AVGO https://t.co/qyqtCnYDnz |
$AMAT just opened the largest joint chip research facility in the world, and all the major chipmakers are in it. The EPIC Center in Sunnyvale, California covers about 600,000 square feet, with nearly four acres of cleanroom space. Spending… |
Nice visual shared by Nicholas $NVDA $DELL $COHR $LITE $AVGO https://t.co/WlrCn4lAT2 https://t.co/UFGjvbdr8p |
Microsoft just told the market it's betting multiple gigawatts of future data center capacity on chips it designed itself. Maia 300 claims 40 percent more tokens per watt than leading GPU based systems, and Maia 200, already running across… |
AI hardware just got so expensive that Wall Street has to step in, with over $90 BILLION in new debt to buy chips. According to the Wall Street Journal, Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion to fund its custom AI chips for OpenAI.… |
BofA has CPO TAM growing to $14.1 billion in 2030E, up from $0.2 billion in 2026E. 206% CAGR '26-'30. $LITE $NVDA $COHR $MRVL $AVGO $TSM https://t.co/1xHSwbPFQT |
"Bernstein has raised its forecast for the global data center XPU ASIC market in 2028 from $140–160 billion to $250–300 billion, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at $50–70 billion and $130–150 billion, respectively." $GOOGL $AVGO $MRVL… |
Nomura: 1.6T transceiver BOM cost breakdown DSP/MCU/CDR lead with 27% of the BOM cost, followed by 200G EML/LD chip at 26%. $LITE $COHR $MRVL $AAOI $AVGO |
Global Silicon Photonics/CPO Industry Ecosystem $GLW $TSM $NVDA $AVGO $MRVL |
Nomura: total CPO OE shipments are estimated at 2.0 million units in 2027F, scaling significantly to 22.5 million units in 2028F. $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $MRVL |
Broadcom is reportedly arranging more than fifty billion dollars in financing so OpenAI can buy chips Broadcom hasn't finished building yet. Apollo and Blackstone are the lenders in the room, the same pair behind Broadcom's $35 billion… |
Bernstein: AI accelerator chiplet volume to more than double from 2025-2028E. $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $INTC |
Bernstein: AI server supply chain $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $TSM $MU $AMKR $GOOGL |
Expert Takeaways: Marvell > Marvell will receive roughly $8 billion plus equity warrants in its Google deal, with the Google LPU v10 projected to generate about $10 billion in revenue over 2029–2030. > LPUs pair with TPUs at a 2-to-1 ratio… |
The Broadcom Anthropic deal is a hiring deadline dressed up as a credit story. Lease payments start at deployment in 2027. KORE1's advice: lock in your commissioning leads now. https://t.co/OH7nqNSamV https://t.co/NLIKjSY9j7 |
Who gets hired first when the Broadcom Anthropic deal brings 3.5 gigawatts of TPU capacity online in 2027? KORE1's answer: electricians, commissioning agents, then JAX engineers. https://t.co/OH7nqNSamV https://t.co/LIvPTnk8x8 |
$60 billion of bank debt now backs a $125.2 billion TPU lease. The Broadcom Anthropic deal starts paying in 2027, and KORE1 expects electricians and commissioning crews to feel it first. https://t.co/OH7nqNSamV https://t.co/mY3kLQC22S |
Netlist has begun legal proceedings against Micron and downstream customers Nvidia, Broadcom and Google over alleged unauthorized use of its HBM patents, per DigiTimes. The claim reaches past the memory maker to the chip buyers. IP risk… |
A good overview by UBS of the market participants in humanoid robot related sectors $MSFT $NVDA $QCOM $AVGO $MU $AMZN https://t.co/A0yxpRgeLh |
Google Cloud's Thomas Kurian puts AI server payback under two years overall, and under one year for servers using in-house silicon such as TPUs, per DigiTimes. That gap, not benchmark wins, is what funds the next custom chip. Order… |
Evercore ISI: We expect Nvidia's market share to stabilize at around 80%, if not increase slightly, in 2027 driven by share gains at Anthropic and with the increasing use of open-source models. $NVDA $AVGO $INTC $AMD $MRVL |
Evercore ISI: GPUs expected to be 75-80% of the compute fleet for OpenAI in 2026-2027. $NVDA $AMD $MRVL $AVGO $GOOGL $AMZN |
Citi: HBM Demand Outlook > Massive Market Growth: Total HBM demand is projected to surge exponentially, jumping from just 736 (1Gb eq.) in 2021 to a staggering 126,990 by 2028. > Nvidia Dominates Demand: Nvidia remains the primary driver… |
$AVGO is getting too cheap to ignore. Forward PE is 20x. A year ago it was 32x. Forward EV/EBITDA is 16x, down from 26x. The multiple has been cut by more than a third while the business did this: Q3 revenue $29.6 billion, up 86%. AI… |
Custom accelerators are no longer a side market. Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% to $16.7B last quarter and it guides to $230B of AI chip revenue by fiscal 2028; AMD lifted its 2027 data center outlook toward $70B. The… |
Mizuho: Optical > EML Market Share Dynamics: EML chips remain the workhorse for AI data center optical interconnects, supporting 800G and emerging 1.6T/3.2T architectures, though its share is expected to decline from ~62% in 2025 to ~45%… |
Samsung will fabricate a custom AI chip for OpenAI — likely the successor to Jalapeno, designed with Broadcom and fabbed by TSMC. The two will also co-develop memory for Stargate, where SK Hynix already sits. OpenAI is splitting its custom… |
Imo the debt fear around $ORCL has created a solid opportunity here. The fear is that Oracle is borrowing itself into a hole to build for one customer. which is understandable, but the call walked through why that's wrong. More than $30… |
AI inference is about to create a second trillion dollar supply chain because inference is expected to rise from 30% of demand in 2023 to 75% by 2030 (Save this). That means every chatbot, coding assistant, search engine and AI agent will… |
Huawei unveils new optical tech standard in challenge to Nvidia, Broadcom Company urges industry to create ecosystem for its near-package optics approach https://t.co/Ku0sN8ifAr |
If compute is the biggest moat in AI, shouldn't we be buying OpenAI and Anthropic? Dylan Patel puts OpenAI at roughly 2 gigawatts entering 2026 and Anthropic slightly below, with both above 5 by year end, a 3 to 4x jump each. Together… |
Please give @awodias a follow. They are at CIOE 2026 and providing a lot of useful information 👍 CPO market expected to grow from ~$90 million in 2025 to >$110 billion in 2031, or ~230% CAGR '25-'31. $TSM $LITE $COHR $AVGO $NVDA $AMD… |
OpenAI's first inference ASIC, Jalapeno, is made at TSMC with Samsung HBM4. OpenAI Korea now says next-generation chips could also run at Samsung foundry and packaging. Samsung and Broadcom already have a $200B+ partnership through 2030.… |
Semiconductor Supply Chain Ecosystem Via PDF Solutions slide deck $ASML $TSM $INTC $TSEM $NVDA $MRVL $AVGO |
CIOE 2026: major products within the optical communication industry $GLW $LITE $COHR $AVGO $MRVL $CRDO $SMTC |
Day 1 Takeaways | Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026 and Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference Companies I covered include: Arista Networks $ANET Qualcomm $QCOM Alphabet $GOOGL Vertiv $VRT Cisco $CSCO Broadcom $AVGO… |
Hock Tan with probably the worst explanation ever in countering the circular financing claim: "Of the six, two of them, two of the strongest guys do not have the cash flows to be able to generate the compute needed to train and create… |
$QCOM just entered the custom silicon and optical connectivity race, and Amazon is the customer. They announced a multi-generation collaboration to build custom silicon for AWS AI infrastructure, plus optical connectivity solutions… |
Optics is one of the strongest parts of the AI buildout, because every new GPU cluster needs far more high speed connections than the last one (Save this). The table shows global optical module shipments rising from 449,492 thousand units… |
We need more compute than ever before because AI is moving into the everyday operations of ordinary businesses (Save this). The chart shows that 22.4% of firms are already using AI in their regular business functions, while another 25.9%… |
$AVGO just gave the most bullish semiconductor outlook you’ll hear all year. Exactly the kind of thing you want to hear for a company like $AEHR. And it closed deep red yesterday anyway. Broadcom said XPU shipments went 3.5x year over year… |
Broadcom's core switching GM Asad Khamisy told Semicon Taiwan that co-packaged optics is not necessarily the best answer for scale-up networking, and fits scale-out better. The optics story splits by tier rather than replacing copper… |
NVIDIA and Broadcom will become "safe haven" stocks if inflation goes up. Hedge funds would probably rotate into $NVDA and $AVGO in size if this mechanism manifests: Higher inflation -> higher rates -> bonds fall. PMs will need to find a… |
Notes from the $AVGO call. >Revenue of $29.6 billion, up 86%. AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, up 221% year over year. Operating margin at a record 68%. Free cash flow of $13.7 billion. >Q4 AI revenue guided to $21.7 billion, up… |