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What changed, and what is the evidence.

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  1. 🗓️ 2026-10-21 · ✍️ RoboterminalSchaeffler Will Buy Thousands of Humanoids From Its Actuator Customers. Its €400 Million Order Book Doesn't Count Those Deals.
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What changed, and what is the evidence.

Oct 22, 2026 · Post · posted
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Sam Altman on the amount of compute needed if 50% of the world were using personal AI assistants to its full capabilities: "How many GPUs do you want working for your personal assistant? When people talk about the global market for GPUs…

According to Korean media, Samsung Electro Mechanics just signed the biggest substrate contract in its history, and the customer is $NVDA. The multibillion dollar deal covers the substrates that sit under Nvidia's AI chips and networking…

Goldman Sachs: NVL8 28x more compute compared to A100 for 3.7x more power. The result? 87% less power per petaflop $NVDA

Wells Fargo: We currently model Nvidia shipping ~23gW of total AI infrastructure capacity in CY27/FY28, or an average of 5.6GW per quarter. $NVDA

BofA: TrendForce states Nvidia's AI-server share moderates from 66.9% in CY26 to 62.6% in CY27 as “Others” rises from 26.0% to 29.6%. Custom ASICs increase from 26.1% to 29.6% of AI server shipments, led by hyperscaler programs. $NVDA…

$SPY rose about 0.5% today to around $773, bouncing from an early low of $768.41 as chip and AI stocks led the market higher. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. $SMCI jumped about 10% after raising its fiscal first quarter…

‘The Fix Is In’ in AI. Musk, Nvidia, OpenAI & AI Agents. ARD #189 …a Tesla-SpaceX merger, Nvidia on water and power, OpenAI on Google’s cloud, and the AI agent race. $NVDA $TSLA $SPCX Full writeup and source links: https://t.co/LecVwJHf8A…

Another major shortage is starting to develop across the AI supply chain. We're talking about multilayer ceramic capacitors, or MLCCs, which are tiny components used in everything from AI servers and GPUs to smartphones, networking…

Wow. $NVDA is possibly in the run for $AMBA https://t.co/FbMbGEkQXl

$NBIS $NVDA GOOD GOD. ONE. GIGAWATT. Of Vera Rubin. Next year. Nebius is guiding to a $7-9B run rate by the end of 2026, and they just casually dropped that a gigawatt of the most powerful chips on the planet is coming next, with customers…

BofA: SpaceX management is "highly confident" of adding 10GW in CY27, mostly Vera Rubin, would be surprised below 13GW, and sees "non-zero" chance of more than 20GW. That implies $400 billion to $800 billion of potential Vera Rubin spend…

$NVDA $NBIS $IREN $CRWV The world is not ready for the speed of the buildout ahead of us. NVIDIA just unveiled DSX POD at GTC Berlin: complete Vera Rubin AI factories, built and tested inside containers before they ever leave the factory…

Jensen continues to march ahead of competitors by locking down the entire supply chain. This is why they can enjoy the pricing power they have. $NVDA https://t.co/ynYeNfsS9f

Nomura: global data center power usage by application $NVDA $AMD $VRT $GOOGL $MSFT $META $AMZN

SpaceX alone could be buying more Nvidia GPUs than most countries. On the earnings call, Elon Musk said SpaceX is on track to bring roughly 200,000 $NVDA GB300 GPUs online every month for the rest of this year. That is about 600,000 GPUs…

DeepSeek just gave away the engine it uses to run its own models. The Chinese lab open sourced DeepInfer, the inference framework behind DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, under the free Apache 2.0 license. It runs on $NVDA Blackwell chips and on…

Morgan Stanley: We believe low-volume production of the Nvidia VR200 rack has already begun, with the LPX rack scheduled to ramp late this year or early next year, followed by the Vera standalone CPU rack ramping in late 1Q27 or early…

Morgan Stanley sees the cost per new MW peaking at $51.8 million in FY27, before sliding to $47 million in FY29E. $MSFT $NVDA $AMZN $GOOGL $META https://t.co/IC6zlAbmhs https://t.co/8zXgV111pw

Nvidia is now writing checks to keep its own customers alive. According to The Information, $NVDA is in talks to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Firmus, the Australian AI cloud provider that just pulled its IPO. Firmus was trying…

Morgan Stanley: We believe AWS's planned incremental GPU purchases will skew to Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra, we see these extra chips driving an extra ~2 GW /~1 GW of compute capacity in '27/'28 vs. our prior estimates. $AMZN $NVDA

$SPY rose about 0.2% today to around $768, bouncing from an early low of $764.25 as the Dow led and tech lagged. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. South Korean neocloud Elice plunged 32% in its trading debut, dragging the KOSPI…

Bernstein on $LITE: Recent drawdowns are due to softer AI lab revenues, $CRWV financing, and macro overhangs. Not weaker infra demand. Bernstein say that the real debate is whether 2028 CPO bandwidth math holds, with bandwidth scale-up…

Expert Takeaways: Data Centers 1. Open-Source Models Closing the Gap > Open-source models are catching up to state-of-the-art frontier models faster than expected, driven by lower costs and improved performance. > Starting in Q2, customers…

JPMorgan just dropped an ABSOLUTELY INSANE forecast for AI compute. According to JPMorgan, global AI compute demand is expected to reach roughly 530 GW by 2031, while available supply is projected to reach just 250 GW. That leaves us with…

This is how you get rich ⚡️ You buy the macro dip in companies that are structural to building the future, with great management and a killer product roadmap. This is the time to add, into fear, into bad news, into uncertainty, not to…

This is absolutely INSANE and another example of just how EXTREME demand for AI compute has become. According to Reuters, China's three largest technology companies, ByteDance, $BABA, and Tencent, have reportedly placed more than $35B in…

Nvidia is expected to retain the largest market share in the AI accelerator market, despite slipping from 81.7% in 2025 to 68.6% in 2030E. Nvidia should remain the leader. $NVDA https://t.co/2nD7AS5EH1

Nebius: spot pricing of B200 has increased by 109.4% in the past 7 days. $NBIS $NVDA

$SPY rose 0.48% to $766.91 today, with AI and chip stocks leading a bounce after last week's selloff. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. Chip stocks bounced back as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 2% to snap an…

We're about to witness the BIGGEST infrastructure spending boom in human history. According to Morgan Stanley, hyperscalers and neoclouds are projected to spend a staggering $1.58 TRILLION in 2027 and $1.81 TRILLION in 2028 when operating…

UBS: active devise supply chain $MRVL $GOOGL $AMZN $AVGO $TSEM $NVDA

According to The Information, DeepSeek is working with Huawei to help shape the design of Huawei's future AI chips, in a direct push to challenge $NVDA. Last month DeepSeek released open source programming tools for Huawei's Ascend chips…

$NVDA $META Meta's Million-GPU Monster Is Hungry Meta just published how it runs Prometheus, its push toward a million-GPU cluster in Ohio. The number that stuck with me is buried in the reliability section. To run a job on 32,768 GPUs,…

Anthropic just locked in compute for the next 20 YEARS in Canada. It signed a 20 year lease at EverWind's planned data center campus in Point Tupper, Nova Scotia. Phase one is 95 megawatts, targeted for late 2027. A 325 megawatt expansion…

AI: The $10 Trillion AI Build Meets Its Bankers. AI-RTZ #1244 …debt markets tighten on neoclouds, Oracle and SoftBank. Bigger than the railroads, the AI build gets built, just slower. $NVDA https://t.co/94WFIPTWKZ https://t.co/ufFwoJ0cBW

Rubin Ultra has two options sample: one with same material grade as Rubin; the other upgrades the resin from M8 to M9, i.e., M9, Low-Dk 1st-generation cloth plus HVLP4 foil. The latter is more likely but not fully finalized. The orthogonal…

"B200?" "There's a waitlist sir, 18 months" $NVDA https://t.co/RHd19MYyUz

Goldman Sachs has raised the global servers TAM by 31%/45% in 2027/28E to ~$1.1 trillion and ~$1.6 trillion, respectively. New AI servers shipment forecasts imply AI chip demand of 18m/29m/38m in 2026-28E. $DELL $HPE $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL…

Nvidia would incur an additional 60kW of power and $2M of cost per rack by replacing short copper cables with optical links, according to Bernstein's expert assessment with former NVIDIA leader Brad Smith. $NVDA https://t.co/qnHhkPok0p

Samsung is teaming up with its biggest foundry rival to build Nvidia's next memory chip. According to Korean media, Samsung will use $TSM's 3nm process for the base die in $NVDA's custom NVHBM, at Nvidia's request. The base die is the…

Morgan Stanley has revised AMD's GPU demand forecast for 2026-2030 from 14.1 million units to 8.0 million units, or -43.3%, while keeping Nvidia's the same. $AMD $NVDA https://t.co/U0nRij2XHd

BofA on AI comparison to the dotcom: "Unlike the idle fiber of 2000, deployed AI infrastructure runs near 100% utilization, and even older A100/H100/B200 (2020/2022/2024 launch, respectively) GPU rental rates are up 12% -37% YTD, a sign of…

Bloomberg Intelligence: scale-up optical engine market forecasted to reach $90 billion in 2030, up from $279 million in 2026 or 322x. OCS market expected to reach $8 billion in 2030. $GOOGL $LITE $COHR $NVDA $TSEM

Taiwan is planning industrial parks in the United States for $NVDA's AI supply chain. The first one is in Texas and could cost up to $4 billion. More parks are planned, at $2 to $4 billion each. The goal is to bring the smaller suppliers…

Keybanc: we hear that AMD's ODM partners are really struggling with ramping production volume of Helios racks as they are undergoing similar growing pains to what NVDA did when it initially ramped GB200. The two things that we have heard…

UBS: AI power TAM growing to $91.1 billion by 2030E, up from $17.7 billion in 2026E. Of the $91.1 billion, $49 billion dedicated to GPU power TAM, while the other $42 billion for ASIC. $GOOGL $MSFT $META $ORCL $NVDA $AMD $AMZN

Keybanc: Supply chain partners indicate that Nvidia is sampling a Rubin Ultra GPU with 384GB of HBM4E based on 8x12H. This would represent a 33% increase in memory density over Rubin, which has 288GB of HBM4 memory. However, most memory…

Nomura: supply chain for optical devices $COHR $LITE $AAOI $NVDA $CIEN $GOOGL

According to Korean media, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are speeding up their in house AI chips. That could open up a SECOND group of HBM buyers beyond $NVDA. Microsoft's Maia 300 is expected to ship more than 1 MILLION units next…

Jensen Huang hopes to announce some new partnerships in Europe to unlock more land, power, and shell. Willing to support neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius in scaling out in places like Europe. Mentions substrates and silicon photonics…

CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, on Nvidia's business: "People put us in chips. We are actually in warehouse and logistics, we are in healthcare, we are in automotive, we are in telecommunications, we are in life sciences, entertainment for a…

OpenAI just lost the man in charge of its entire COMPUTE buildout. Sachin Katti, who led OpenAI's infrastructure and Stargate data center push, announced he is leaving to build something newm, his last day is November 15 and he will stay…

Morgan Stanley: We heard a broad consensus from our industry checks that the AI semis supply chain has strengthened in the last 30 days. We hear the most conviction from DRAM, NAND, HDD, and GPU. $AMD $NVDA $MU $SNDK $WDC $STX

DIGITIMES: Nvidia's next-generation Rubin AI accelerators are expected to rely predominantly on 12-layer HBM4 high-bandwidth memory, despite reports that the chipmaker has asked Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to increase supplies of…

Bloomberg shared this visual showing the estimated cost of building a data center. Of the estimated $29.2 billion, $17.1 billion (or 58.5%) is dedicated to chips & servers. $NVDA $DELL $GEV $AMD $GOOGL $META $MSFT https://t.co/ay4TmgkRo4

$SPY fell 1.1% today to around $769 after dropping as low as $766.71, as a hot inflation report pushed rate hike odds higher and hit AI stocks. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. September CPI came in at 3.7% from a year ago…

Nvidia's management regarding HBM de-spec: "Management described ongoing efforts to optimize system architectures for customers, though it pushed back on the notion that all optimization efforts equate to HBM de-speccing." $NVDA

Morgan Stanley: As we move to multi-rack clusters like the Rubin Ultra NVL576, networking doubles its share of total rack value to 20%, while single-rack memory density compresses. GB300 NVL72: 57% GPU | 15% Memory | 8% Networking Rubin…

Morgan Stanley: Nvidia's 2027 forecast for racks is at 90.4K (+10% y/y) vs our 2026 forecast at 82K racks. $NVDA

Expert Takeaways: Unitree Humanoids > Robot chips split into low-compute parts (e.g., Rockchip RK3588, 6 TOPS) for low latency/fast communication and high-compute parts for high-bandwidth throughput. > Rockchip controls ~95% of the…

$SPY finished basically flat today, closing at $778.01 for a 0.01% loss after dipping as low as $775.95 earlier in the session as chip stocks sold off. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. Memory stocks got hit again on worries…

The Fed just admitted that AI demand is now big enough to move INFLATION across the entire United States economy. New York Fed President John Williams said today that one more rate hike may be appropriate this year but he currently sees no…

J.P. Morgan is forecasting a ~300GW shortfall in global AI compute by 2031E. $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $MSFT $META $AVGO $AMZN https://t.co/iZrvcU2svc https://t.co/yzzhhhEN7G

Memory fundamentals are still very strong (stronger than Q1). $MU CEO: - "We expect memory and storage supply demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026." - "We do not have line of sight to when…

If you have time, go play around with this interactive website to see the parts inside Nvidia's Vera Rubin. Great work by @benitoz He also has supply chain mapping 🔥 Link in replies 👇 $NVDA $MU $GOOGL $MRVL $AVGO https://t.co/qyqtCnYDnz

Nvidia's market share in China for data center AI chips has fallen to 34% in 1H26. Nvidia shipped 678,000 AI accelerators in China from January through June, down 44% YoY. There used to be a time where Nvidia had 90+% market share...😔…

Nice visual shared by Nicholas $NVDA $DELL $COHR $LITE $AVGO https://t.co/WlrCn4lAT2 https://t.co/UFGjvbdr8p

"Rubin shipment expectations have been cut from roughly 10,000 systems to around 5,000, mainly due to yield and capacity constraints affecting GPUs, orthogonal backplanes, power systems, and related components." 😱 $NVDA…

$SPY finished nearly flat today, down about 0.06% and closing near $778 after dipping as low as about $777. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. $MSFT announced Maia 300, calling it its biggest bet yet on custom silicon, and said…

$NVDA just made some HUGE announcements about the future of AI infrastructure. At the Open Compute Project Summit, NVIDIA announced plans to open up more of its next generation Vera Rubin infrastructure designs while expanding its…

AI hardware just got so expensive that Wall Street has to step in, with over $90 BILLION in new debt to buy chips. According to the Wall Street Journal, Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion to fund its custom AI chips for OpenAI.…

UBS: "As a reminder, for C2027 we anticipate ~50GW of compute shipments (requiring ~57GW of powered data center including PUE factor) against current visibility for ~38GW of powered shell when excluding early-stage power plant projects. In…

Expert Takeaways: Inference > GPU Rental Rates Up ~20%: Driven by HBM supply constraints. Neo-cloud providers are passing hardware cost increases straight to tenants via shorter 1–3 year contracts rather than taking margin cuts. > HBM4…

Mizuho: Nvidia's server CPU revenue could grow to ~$60 billion in 2028E, and start becoming a leader in the server CPU market in 2027E. $NVDA $ARM $INTC $AMD

Jensen Huang just committed $1 BILLION to put AI in the hands of America's scientists. At the White House science summit, 11 companies pledged $2.4 billion in compute and AI tools to the Genesis Mission, which now covers more than 15…

I think Gavin's correct. Open-weight models that compress frontier margins are positive for AI infra -- they don't shrink demand for compute. An example is after Deepseek R1, Tencent, Alibaba and Bytedance *significantly* increased H20…

BofA has CPO TAM growing to $14.1 billion in 2030E, up from $0.2 billion in 2026E. 206% CAGR '26-'30. $LITE $NVDA $COHR $MRVL $AVGO $TSM https://t.co/1xHSwbPFQT

Goldman Sachs: Nvidia B300 AIDC can generate a gross ROIC of 43% per 1GW, compared to 7% for the Huawei 910C. $NVDA

Nvidia is now redesigning how AI memory works and it is pulling TSMC right into the middle of the HBM business. According to TheElec, Micron will use TSMC to make the base die for its HBM4E. Nvidia's custom NVHBM moves the memory…

Morgan Stanley: Coherent is being considered as one of the key FAU (or total solution/fiber kit) suppliers to NVIDIA for Rubin NVL576. $COHR $NVDA https://t.co/Kr0xzCJ5PE

$SPY bounced back today, up about 0.6% to around $779 after two straight losing sessions, as the OpenAI revenue scare cooled off and oil prices eased. Here are the top stories of the day. 1. Bloomberg reported OpenAI still expects at least…

J.P. Morgan: our Tech research team highlights that the traditional LLM infrastructure has a GPU-heavy architecture, with CPU/GPU ratios of 1:4 to 1:8. For Agentic AI, that ratio shifts towards 1:1, and could even become CPU- heavier as…

AI: Nvidia, the AI Banker & its Next Generation. AI-RTZ #1234 (Part 2) …Nvidia the Kingmaker, part 2: neoclouds, sovereign AI & GPU financing, with Jensen’s next generation in key roles. $NVDA https://t.co/ulpbnEx93b https://t.co/rvNqATwKmQ

Global Silicon Photonics/CPO Industry Ecosystem $GLW $TSM $NVDA $AVGO $MRVL

Citi: we believe the CPU TAM expands from $29B in 2025 to $300B in 2030, or a 60% CAGR. $INTC $AMD $NVDA $QCOM

Funda Takeaways: OCS > Optical circuit switch (OCS) revenue has surged from under $10m a quarter a year ago to Lumentum expecting over $100m for the September quarter, with total OCS revenue projected to pass $2.5b next year. > Google is…

Nomura: total CPO OE shipments are estimated at 2.0 million units in 2027F, scaling significantly to 22.5 million units in 2028F. $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $MRVL

Bernstein: AI accelerator chiplet volume to more than double from 2025-2028E. $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $INTC

Expert Takeaways: Taiwan Union Technology > TUC's top 3 customers are Google, Amazon, and SpaceX. Server business drives 70% of total revenue, while consumer electronics takes 20% and auto/industrial takes 10%. > High-Speed Material…

AI: Nvidia’s Open Source ‘AI Factory’ Push vs China. AI-RTZ #1233 (Part 1)…Nvidia the Kingmaker, part 1: Reflection’s Beam arrives, Jensen’s latest answer to China’s open source lead.$NVDA https://t.co/Daf67mIt6o https://t.co/Kws4gcYFh7

Citi on Meta's Muse: At 100M daily users, our framework implies roughly 200,000–390,000 Blackwell-class GPUs, about 2,800–5,500 NVL72 racks, and approximately $7–19B of one-time Nvidia revenue, including scale-out networking. On a per-user…

Bernstein: AI server supply chain $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $TSM $MU $AMKR $GOOGL

SpaceX has deployed approximately 1.0 million Nvidia GPUs across its Colossus I and Colossus II datacenters, expanding total operational compute to 1.81 GW by late September 2026, according to Goldman Sachs. $SPCX $NVDA…

AI & TECH STOCK MARKET REVIEW The 10 biggest stories from today: 1. $NVDA hit another ATH and is close to becoming the first company ever worth $6 trillion. The stock is up ~28% this year, adding ~$1.2 trillion in market cap, making Nvidia…

Lightmatter at HSBC's Silicon Valley tech tour indicated that the broader ecosystem is dealing with delayed CPO adoption, with expected timelines moving towards 2028-30. $NVDA $AMD $LITE $COHR $AAOI $TSM

UBS: memory as % of VR200/VR300 BOM costs to be 68% and 62%, respectively. $NVDA

Bernstein: DRAM and NAND with the largest change in semiconductor ASPs, +282.3% YoY and +396.5% YoY, respectively. Logic is 3rd at 26.3%. $MU $DRAM $EWY $INTC $AMD $NVDA

Today was absolutely insane in the stock market Here's everything you need to know: 1. Weak September jobs report continues fueling bets the Fed skips an October hike 2. The Nasdaq hit a record high as megacap tech led 3. $NVDA, $META,…

A good overview by UBS of the market participants in humanoid robot related sectors $MSFT $NVDA $QCOM $AVGO $MU $AMZN https://t.co/A0yxpRgeLh

Nice sector timeline visuals from @outerninth showing where each technology is currently at and its market opportunity. Still early CPO, AI power semiconductors, and humanoids. $MU $SNDK $TSLA $NVDA $LITE $AAOI $VRT https://t.co/SZTc5Tpug6

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