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What changed, and what is the evidence.
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What changed, and what is the evidence.
Oct 20, 2026 · Post · posted
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The industry believes SK Hynix' HBM4 shipments fell short of initial expectations in the third quarter. According to the industry on the 21st, SK hynix's third-quarter operating profit consensus (the average forecast by brokerages) is… |
$MU $SNDK $SKHY $NBIS Nomura’s memory team just put out a really interesting note on the AI scare, the numbers underneath are some of the strongest I’ve seen in this drawdown. Nomura sees AI going from 10GW of data center power in 2025 to… |
CXMT shares fall 7.8% despite record 9-month profit The market reaction came after the company forecast a record net income of up to US$19.8 billion for the first nine months of 2026, as the domestic chip champion cashed in on artificial… |
SK hynix backend equipment for HBM4 slipped from 2026 delivery to 2027, per Dealsite; shares fell five straight sessions, down over 11%. Two readings: MR-MUF injection trouble at tighter JEDEC die spacing, or DRAM margins paying better.… |
"Intel is 80% done." That is how Lip Bu Tan described the turnaround at $INTC in a new interview with Nikkei. Since taking over in March 2025, he has replaced most of the senior leadership team, including bringing in the former CEO of SK… |
Samsung raised its 32GB DDR5 price from $149 to $239 in September. That's a 60 percent jump in one month, and it isn't the top of the curve. Contract DRAM pricing more than doubled this year, from about $7 a unit to $19.50, and Gartner is… |
Memory stocks just lost about $738 BILLION in market value. According to Goldman Sachs, shares of the major memory makers fell between 11% and 26% after China's CXMT announced its new DRAM cell architecture. SK Hynix fell about 25%.… |
Samsung is teaming up with its biggest foundry rival to build Nvidia's next memory chip. According to Korean media, Samsung will use $TSM's 3nm process for the base die in $NVDA's custom NVHBM, at Nvidia's request. The base die is the… |
DRAM spot pricing ⬆️ SK Hynix and Samsung market cap ⬇️ $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY https://t.co/vx6FIle8j2 |
Every major memory maker says it's sold out through 2027, demand described as extremely strong, and the stock prices did not get that memo this month. Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix and Western Digital have all taken turns falling since October… |
Kospi closed -7.57%, circuit breakers on Kospi and Kosdaq. SK hynix -11.1%, Samsung -9.5%; foreigners net sold 3.62tn won while domestic institutions bought. Trigger: CXMT's 4F2 DRAM claim — commodity DRAM, not HBM, per analysts. Crowded… |
China's biggest DRAM maker is printing money. CXMT expects about ¥131 billion in net profit for the first nine months of 2026. A year earlier it lost ¥5.3 billion. Quarterly revenue went from ¥6.1 billion in Q1 2025 to an estimated ¥115 to… |
A US class action alleges Samsung, SK hynix and Micron coordinated DRAM pricing, and that each AI HBM bit cost about three bits of regular DRAM. These are unproven allegations: no certified class, no liability found. Wafer conversion math… |
Michael Dell just told the Wall Street Journal that the memory crunch is going to get WORSE. On CNBC this week he said supply and demand get worse next year, and when asked about memory he called it "maybe a four year problem because… |
Global smartphone shipments just had their WORST quarter on record. IDC says shipments fell about 22% in Q3 to 255.3 million units. Memory costs driven by AI demand are crushing phone makers. Chinese brands got hit the hardest, while… |
According to Korean media, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are speeding up their in house AI chips. That could open up a SECOND group of HBM buyers beyond $NVDA. Microsoft's Maia 300 is expected to ship more than 1 MILLION units next… |
SK Hynix conditions new US factory on more US chip equipment exports to China, sources say @pstAsiatech This is clearly a "common sense" approach to this issue. https://t.co/sXL2R8V9B5 |
Back-end equipment for SK Hynix's HBM4 may slip from 2H26 into 2027, per DigiTimes, as conventional DRAM tightens. The same capacity shift has DDR4 contract prices rising faster than DDR5. HBM versus commodity DRAM is no longer a one-way… |
DIGITIMES: Nvidia's next-generation Rubin AI accelerators are expected to rely predominantly on 12-layer HBM4 high-bandwidth memory, despite reports that the chipmaker has asked Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to increase supplies of… |
SK Hynix is seeking approval from Washington to export US chipmaking equipment to China to increase production there as a condition for building a factory in the US. $SKHY $DRAM $EWY https://t.co/FHDZ4SFAe0 |
SK Hynix, Micron confront AI memory bottlenecks with HBM standardization, chip integration AI infrastructure expansion is shifting semiconductor competition beyond individual chip performance towards memory bandwidth, data-transfer power… |
Two Korean firms hold 83% of global memory. SK Hynix broke ground on a $4B packaging plant in Indiana in August; Samsung more than doubled its HBM share in a year. Rhodium notes Nvidia's allocation decisions still set HBM share. The buyer… |
Elon is saying Micron has been reasonable with future memory prices while the others have been extortionate 😮 Elon doesn't like what Samsung and SK Hynix are doing in terms of pricing... $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY https://t.co/nJBQXyVfrb |
Damnang not only has good writing, but good visuals! This is a great visual showing the difference in HBM4 between Samsung and SK Hynix. Please have a read at this article! https://t.co/OMa9Q1boO6 https://t.co/vrxucwF34V |
$SPY finished basically flat today, closing at $778.01 for a 0.01% loss after dipping as low as $775.95 earlier in the session as chip stocks sold off. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. Memory stocks got hit again on worries… |
China’s CXMT makes progress in chip design pursued by Samsung, SK Hynix This is how the industry works.... https://t.co/U1t5w7XxHo |
$AMAT just opened the largest joint chip research facility in the world, and all the major chipmakers are in it. The EPIC Center in Sunnyvale, California covers about 600,000 square feet, with nearly four acres of cleanroom space. Spending… |
SK hynix put 100+ in-house H-TPU cores in an SSD controller. Each draws ~2.5% of the power and 4% of the area of a general-purpose CPU core. It feeds Storage Next, which addresses 512-byte units, an eighth of the usual 4KB. Storage is… |
The chip sell off just spread across ALL of Asia. South Korea's KOSPI is down about 6% and has dropped below 6,000. Japan's Nikkei is down about 2.6%, and MSCI's Asia Pacific index outside Japan is down about 2%, according to Reuters. Not… |
Samsung's HBM4E has reportedly cleared validation, and forecasts cited by DigiTimes have it overtaking SK hynix as the largest HBM supplier in 2027 as HBM4 prices climb and DRAM capacity stays tight. Both show HBM4E cooling at SEDEX this… |
Goldman Sachs is now forecasting a 4.9 percent DRAM undersupply for 2026, and the mechanism behind that number matters more than the headline. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron aren't short on fab capacity. They're reallocating it. HBM for AI… |
Chey Tae-won, chairperson of SK Group, wants to speed up chip plant expansion to avoid losing memory market share in Korea. He said, "If Chinese companies or U.S. Micron expand faster, Korea's market share will shrink," adding, "There is… |
SK hynix paid $8.8 BILLION for Intel's NAND business in 2021 and now it could be worth over 10x that. According to Korean media, Solidigm has reportedly picked Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead a United States IPO at a valuation… |
Chosunbiz and Seoul Economic Daily report forecasts of humanoid-robot DRAM demand growing 20-fold by 2030, opening a new market for Samsung and SK Hynix. A forecast, not an order book. Memory demand is acquiring a second leg outside AI… |
Every Robotaxi and Optimus bot needs memory to turn AI models into real-world action. As Tesla scales production, locking down that memory supply is becoming a critical pillar of its manufacturing strategy—and that’s precisely why Terafab… |
SK hynix holds ~50% of HBM in 2026 but had no hybrid-bonded samples in production as of Oct 8. An Oct 7 industry report says Samsung shipped samples first; generation and customers unconfirmed. Samsung's share is reported at 33%, Micron… |
ASML has sent a 10% price hike proposal to Samsung and SK Hynix on every spare part it sells. $ASML https://t.co/SVp67C9bw0 |
Hard sciences & Chemical Engineering - very important in all the modern industries. Here are 8 companies involved in supplies for batteries, MLCC, PCB, glass substrate, photoresist & robots. Core competency here is chemical engineering… |
Per TechPowerUp, SK hynix is reportedly struggling with hybrid bonding for next-generation HBM and trails Samsung on sample progress. Unconfirmed, and no yield numbers are public. But if it holds, the bonding step, not the DRAM node,… |
Comparing 2026H1: Japan had lower export than SK, TW, HK & Guangdong All its neighbors are benefiting more from AI trade than it is. Takaichi's epic error has given China the excuse to fully choke Japan's role in AI supply chain. We will… |
Memory suppliers are finally acknowledging our HBM de-spec call. SK Hynix publicly said 16-hi is difficult, and the market is now prioritizing bandwidth over capacity. Hybrid bonding’s case in HBM was always stack height, and at 4-hi and… |
According to an expert, YMTC's eSSD products have been getting trialed by domestic customers due to tight capacity at leading overseas OEMs; however, data center customers still prioritize eSDDs from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. $MU… |
Expert Takeaways: Samsung > Samsung's Production & Sourcing Shift: Samsung is reallocating 10%+ of its 1c node capacity from LPDDR5X to HBM by 2027, while its mobile division relies on a multi-supplier strategy rather than prioritizing… |
AI agents will trigger the largest CPU supercycle in history. Mizuho estimates agentic CPU sockets will surge from 1.3 million in 2026 to 16 million by 2030. Including head node processors, AI could drive nearly half of all server CPU… |
One of the hardest parts of the memory trade is picking the stock. Forecasts have global memory chip revenue going from $200b in 2025 to over $700B in 2027. That's more than triple in two years. The demand side is easy to see. Every AI… |
Mirae Asset Securities: SK Hynix > 12-Hi HBM4 replaced by 8-Hi is a way to stretch constrained supply; allow more stacks to be supplied. > HBM3E supplied for big tech companies has room for price increases in 2027. > Industry is bringing… |
According to Damnang's expert call, SK Hynix is facing technical difficulties in developing hybrid bonding for HBM while Samsung has already sent samples to customers. $MU $DRAM $EWY https://t.co/VwdJ67FMX8 https://t.co/cJRfZWOHA9 |
AI & TECH STOCK MARKET REVIEW The 10 biggest stories from today: 1. $NVDA hit another ATH and is close to becoming the first company ever worth $6 trillion. The stock is up ~28% this year, adding ~$1.2 trillion in market cap, making Nvidia… |
I had the chance to check out J.P. Morgan's latest Memory Market Update and it only made me more bullish on $MU and $SNDK. Memory bears are running out of years to be right. Micron now sees supply tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026,… |
BOOM 🚨 Just hours after announcing a massive memory cut, Elon Musk revealed a quick hardware pivot: Tesla is nudging the AI5 chip's onboard RAM up from 72GB to 96GB of LPDDR5 💥 This puts the new configuration right in the sweet… |
Samsung and SK hynix are about to make an absurd amount of money and South Korea’s export data just revealed why. South Korea’s semiconductor exports surged 259.4% year over year to a record $34.1 billion during the first 20 days of… |
🇨🇳 China’s leading memory-chip maker, CXMT, says its fifth-generation chip platform has entered mass production, marking a new step in the country’s push to expand domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The company also unveiled two… |
Chip exports from SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have surged to record highs in September. In the first 20 days of September, South Korea's total exports rose by 14.9%, compared to 7.2% in August. Chip exports accounted for ~60% of the… |
🇨🇳 Chinese chipmaker CXMT announced that its fifth-generation DRAM memory chip platform has entered mass production. This milestone could position it as a stronger rival to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron globally. The new platform packs… |
This is one of the important chart in the entire memory market (Save this). For two decades, DRAM prices followed the red dotted line, a steady, relentless decline driven by Moore's Law and more efficient manufacturing. That red dotted… |
Can China’s New Memory Chips Challenge Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron? https://t.co/EG9lEe4p9y |
SK Hynix is building a NAND fab in the US. Memory is so tight right now they're expanding into the most expensive place to build. $SKHY https://t.co/wiZ55ixBnX |
SK hynix showed PIM, HBF and SALT-KV at AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara, per DigiTimes, as inference splits between latency-sensitive services and capacity-heavy long-context work. The GPU-HBM pair was one product; two workload shapes… |
Jensen Huang just mapped out the chain of companies needed to power the AI revolution (Save this). His message is that AI is becoming a new industrial system that requires manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, financing and an enormous… |
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics operating profit estimates have been revised up for Q3. "Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit estimate is tallied at around 114 trillion won. That is up 12.2836 trillion won (12%) from the… |
BofA says SK Hynix to reach % HBM to DRAM sales of 35% in 2030E, up from 18% in 2026. $DRAM $DISK $MU $SKHY $EWY https://t.co/Kk3nX8QOg1 |
Samsung will fabricate a custom AI chip for OpenAI — likely the successor to Jalapeno, designed with Broadcom and fabbed by TSMC. The two will also co-develop memory for Stargate, where SK Hynix already sits. OpenAI is splitting its custom… |
Breaking: Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund is buying back into its former positions Situational Awareness placed options bets on: • AMD $AMD • Bloom Energy $BE • CoreWeave $CRWV • SK Hynix $SKHY • SanDisk $SNDK • Roundhill Memory ETF $DRAM… |
AI inference is about to create a second trillion dollar supply chain because inference is expected to rise from 30% of demand in 2023 to 75% by 2030 (Save this). That means every chatbot, coding assistant, search engine and AI agent will… |
CXMT reportedly posted an 82% EBIT margin in Q2 2026, ahead of SK hynix at 76% and Samsung's chip unit at 70%, with revenue up tenfold year on year. Unconfirmed. The opening is the commodity DRAM gap left by HBM4 conversions - the Korean… |
J.P. Morgan: SK Hynix to sustain HBM market leadership, above 40% revenue share next year. HBM ASP forecasted to increase by 48% vs 35% previously in FY27. $SKHY $DRAM $MU $DISK $EWY |
Samsung opened an advanced packaging research center in Yokohama, next to the Japanese suppliers of HBM materials and equipment, per DigiTimes and Nikkei. The stated aim: narrow the HBM gap with SK Hynix. Packaging R&D moves to where the… |
King Slide founder and chairman Lin Tsung-Chi is now Taiwan’s richest man with a net worth of $17.8B. His business? Drawer slides and precision rail kits for AI servers. That puts him ahead of: • Dario Amodei, Anthropic cofounder & CEO —… |
SK keyfoundry signed an 11-year deal to supply Elmos with 130nm capacity through 2037, after 18 years on 350nm; wafer prices can be adjusted under the agreement. 200mm supply is tightening as TSMC and Samsung shift to 300mm. Legacy nodes… |
Korean chip large-caps rallied through a US tariff warning: KOSPI closed 6,995.39 on Sept 7, +4.61%; SK hynix +8.25%. Behind it, per swanpapa, a 55tn won combined buyback — Samsung 15tn, SK hynix 40tn — about 27-30% done. That bid winds… |
Samsung's HBM share doubled to 33% in Q2; SK hynix still leads, now by 17 points. The gap is narrowing at the top of the market that gates AI accelerator supply. Buyers negotiating HBM4 now have a second qualified source with real volume.… |
Kioxia's CEO, Hiroo Ota, on memory prices and cooperation with SK Hynix: > "Prices have already risen enough." > "We have no idea what prompted (Chey) to say what he did." > Ota said he has instructed his sales teams not to push for… |
Dell posted $47B Q2 revenue and a $95B AI server backlog, with AI server revenue seen up ~200% in FY2027. Its ops head named the constraint: DRAM, then NAND. Samsung and SK hynix hold under 10 days of memory inventory, per KB Securities.… |
Samsung is reportedly running half its 4nm capacity on HBM4 base dies: 15,000 of 30,000 wafers a month at Pyeongtaek S5/S6, per ZDNet Korea. Its HBM revenue share went from 15% in Q2 2025 to 38% in Q2 2026; SK hynix fell from 64% to 50%.… |
Memory is about to out earn every other chip on Earth combined and this chart still understates it (Save this). The chart uses Gartner's April forecast, which put memory at $633 billion in 2026 and $748 billion in 2027 inside a $1.32… |
"China's four major cloud service providers (CSPs), Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, are strongly requesting Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix" 👀👀👀 $DRAM $DISK $MU $EWY https://t.co/cQ8WTpKlQn |
LPDDR6 supply will be tight initially. Xiaomi 18 Fold will use a mix of CXMT & SK supply. Implication here is that Chinese OEMs are waiting for CXMT & YMTC to be their white knight & supply the memory chips needed to lower their cost by… |
Micron is reportedly moving to about 100,000 HBM wafers a month by end-2026, roughly double its current run rate, with 12-high HBM4 for Nvidia's Vera Rubin. Per DigiTimes, Samsung and SK Hynix still hold the scale edge. Capacity doubling… |
We need more compute than ever before because AI is moving into the everyday operations of ordinary businesses (Save this). The chart shows that 22.4% of firms are already using AI in their regular business functions, while another 25.9%… |
Counterpoint puts CXMT at 10% of Q2 DRAM and HBM revenue, up from 8% in Q1 and 4% a year ago — fourth globally. Samsung 38%, SK Hynix 25%, Micron 24%. The market itself grew 57% quarter on quarter and 385% year on year. Share shifts inside… |
Micron is testing Near-GPU NAND: high-endurance flash on the GPU package or PCB, hundreds of GB between HBM and system storage. Density traded for endurance and I/O. It follows SK Hynix and SanDisk's HBF. Memory-bound LLMs would need fewer… |
The memory stocks run up is just getting started and here is why. This chart shows that Nvidia could account for a smaller percentage of total HBM demand in 2027, falling from 58% in 2026 to 41% but this does not mean Nvidia’s memory… |
Samsung is the most underrated AI memory stock in the market right now, and let me explain why (Save this). This chart shows global HBM market share by revenue from Q2 2025 through Q2 2026. Samsung gained 12 percentage points in a single… |
South Korea Tech Companies' Exports/Imports (Goldman Sachs) Korean memory exports dropped in July, before reaching all-time highs in August—SK hynix, Samsung and co. are selling ~4x more than 2025. TLDR: Memory stocks down, memory exports… |