Lumentum

$SOXX $NBIS $MU $SNDK $LITE Not calling the bottom, but it sure smells a lot closer than it did two weeks ago… Hong Kong tech (Hang Seng Tech) is now down 43% from its October 2025 peak. And hedge funds just sold global tech harder than at…

$NBIS $MU $LITE This is a great take on the current state of the AI trade. On the equity side, tech trades at ~19x forward earnings. At the 2000 peak it was ~59x. Prices have run, but earnings have run faster, so the multiple is actually…

Update on Lumentum: > Projected requirement is roughly 72,000 OCS units in 2028, valued at $4.8–$5.0 billion. > Lumentum is fully booked and oversubscribed through 2028. > As of mid-April, Lumentum has stopped accepting new orders due to…

CEO of Lumentum, Michael Hurlston, on the impact of yields on capex spend: "The CFO of Alphabet came on just a couple of days ago and was talking about their capex going up year over year. For the most part, I think, the hyperscalers…

I still think Photonics is one of the best sectors to be in. Still so much upside in names like $LITE, $AAOI, $COHR, $FN. Good opportunities here after the recent drawdown.

Bernstein on $LITE: Recent drawdowns are due to softer AI lab revenues, $CRWV financing, and macro overhangs. Not weaker infra demand. Bernstein say that the real debate is whether 2028 CPO bandwidth math holds, with bandwidth scale-up…

This is how you get rich ⚡️ You buy the macro dip in companies that are structural to building the future, with great management and a killer product roadmap. This is the time to add, into fear, into bad news, into uncertainty, not to…

Nice constraint map and the major names involved at each layer 👍 do check it out. $AVGO $LITE $MRVL $MU $AXTI $WDC https://t.co/PL5odHUzZc https://t.co/WOkP0IkIDP

Expert call covering optical components & datacom – 800G/1.6T adoption, Coherent vs. Lumentum vs. Asian module suppliers, AI cluster optical density, and Q4/2027 pricing & volume outlook. $COHR $LITE $AVGO $CIEN https://t.co/luiomEqhpg

Bloomberg Intelligence: scale-up optical engine market forecasted to reach $90 billion in 2030, up from $279 million in 2026 or 322x. OCS market expected to reach $8 billion in 2030. $GOOGL $LITE $COHR $NVDA $TSEM

InP substrate supply chain $LITE $COHR $AXTI $AVGO $AAOI

LightCounting: Port Shipments in 2031 800G: 99 million 1.6T: 194 million 3.2T: 116 million Via OCP $LITE $COHR $MTSI $AAOI

Nomura: supply chain for optical devices $COHR $LITE $AAOI $NVDA $CIEN $GOOGL

Jensen Huang hopes to announce some new partnerships in Europe to unlock more land, power, and shell. Willing to support neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius in scaling out in places like Europe. Mentions substrates and silicon photonics…

Morgan Stanley: As we move to multi-rack clusters like the Rubin Ultra NVL576, networking doubles its share of total rack value to 20%, while single-rack memory density compresses. GB300 NVL72: 57% GPU | 15% Memory | 8% Networking Rubin…

Good stuff here. Basically all of the companies involved in near packaged optics are here. $COHR $LITE $CIEN $MRVL $INTC $AAOI https://t.co/eByDZuLJst https://t.co/AXMXXWUk7j

Expert Takeaways: Meta's Optical Demand > Meta signed a $6B deal with Corning for MPO fiber cables to power its next-gen AI data center infrastructure. > Zhongji, Eoptolink, and Cohr lead Meta’s optical supply chain, with new entrants…

The Fed just admitted that AI demand is now big enough to move INFLATION across the entire United States economy. New York Fed President John Williams said today that one more rate hike may be appropriate this year but he currently sees no…

Macquarie is forecasting a 89% CAGR for the transceiver market over 2025-2028E, with S/D conditions remaining tight until FY27. $AAOI $LITE $COHR $MTSI $FN

Nice visual shared by Nicholas $NVDA $DELL $COHR $LITE $AVGO https://t.co/WlrCn4lAT2 https://t.co/UFGjvbdr8p

"The optical supply chain has never seen this kind of demand before. Many parts of the supply chain had not had to drastically ramp volumes before and is scrambling." 👍 $LITE $COHR $AMD $CRDO https://t.co/jrQ0cBCDbj

$LITE $COHR $MRVL $AAOI $SIVE Optics sold off today on the NVIDIA and Cisco news. They just co-designed a new pluggable module that packs 4x the bandwidth into the same slot. Fewer modules per GPU sounds bearish for the optics names, and…

$NBIS $SNDK $MU $LITE $AAOI Token demand just keeps going vertical. OpenRouter routed 379 trillion tokens in August, up from 15T a year ago. That’s 25x in twelve months. The jump from July to August added 131T tokens in a single month,…

Photonics names siding with no bounce at all. $LITE $COHR $AAOI https://t.co/m75ZEqurx9

Mizuho: SiPho modules growing from 23 million in 2025 to 45M in 2026E (up 95% y/y), reaching ~188 million by 2029E. $TSEM $GFS $STM $LITE $COHR

$NVDA just made some HUGE announcements about the future of AI infrastructure. At the Open Compute Project Summit, NVIDIA announced plans to open up more of its next generation Vera Rubin infrastructure designs while expanding its…

Excellent video by Ben on the visual journey from the compute tray to the rack, through a massive data center and out to other sites. https://t.co/773oLMi9QN https://t.co/zkuWhPjhQb

Mizuho: InP Supply > InP Substrate Bottleneck: InP substrate remains the tightest bottleneck in the supply chain, with Sumitomo Electric and AXT controlling approximately 85% of the market. > Capacity Growth: Global InP substrate capacity…

Globlex Securities sees a lift in ASPs for Lumentum from CY28 as new contracts reprice and new capacity comes only. $LITE https://t.co/FQD3Fa8NAb

With the Singapore Grand Prix in a few hours, I can't help but draw comparisons to the financial markets and the AI trade. One slow pitstop or a miscalculated overtake can undo weeks of preparation and cost millions of dollars. So with AI…

BofA has CPO TAM growing to $14.1 billion in 2030E, up from $0.2 billion in 2026E. 206% CAGR '26-'30. $LITE $NVDA $COHR $MRVL $AVGO $TSM https://t.co/1xHSwbPFQT

Nomura: 1.6T transceiver BOM cost breakdown DSP/MCU/CDR lead with 27% of the BOM cost, followed by 200G EML/LD chip at 26%. $LITE $COHR $MRVL $AAOI $AVGO

Nomura: based on our estimates, optical lasers/chips, DSP, TIA/driver chips, and PD chips could make up 66%~72% of BOM costs of 800G EML/SiPh transceivers or 1.6T EML/SiPh transceivers. $LITE $COHR $AAOI

I think photonics still has room for a memory type run. Yes, these names have always ran hard but the upside is still crazy. $LITE's CEO said they're effectively sold out through early 2029. A few months ago he was saying 2028. For some…

CEO of Lumentum, Michael Hurlston, on Lumentum's business: > Undershipping demand of some of their products by 30% into 2028, and almost sold out for 2029. > Some other products being undershipped by 70% next year. > Biggest bottleneck is…

I still think Photonics stocks are pretty early. Tons of room to run still. $LITE $AAOI $COHR https://t.co/nAN2THbZMD

$LITE is up 6.5% after hours. The Lumentum CEO went on Bloomberg and said they're "completely sold out" through early 2029, with "no end in sight." Six months ago he was talking about sold out through 2028, so the line keeps moving further…

Funda Takeaways: OCS > Optical circuit switch (OCS) revenue has surged from under $10m a quarter a year ago to Lumentum expecting over $100m for the September quarter, with total OCS revenue projected to pass $2.5b next year. > Google is…

It feels like the networking/optical theme has room to run after $MRVL's recent analyst day. According to BNP Paribas: We remain bullish on the optical supply chain given the strong demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers: Coherent, Credo,…

Morgan Stanley Tech Talk: Optics > Expect companies like AMS-Osram and Sumitomo to compete with likes of Lumentum and Coherent in NPO. > FCC decision in coming 1 month (likey) to come on 3.2T transceivers, benefitting Lumentum and…

Lightmatter at HSBC's Silicon Valley tech tour indicated that the broader ecosystem is dealing with delayed CPO adoption, with expected timelines moving towards 2028-30. $NVDA $AMD $LITE $COHR $AAOI $TSM

Lumentum is currently negotiating LTAs for laser supply for CY28 and CY29 and still sees potential jumps in pricing. $LITE https://t.co/XVXx8S3j5i

Nice sector timeline visuals from @outerninth showing where each technology is currently at and its market opportunity. Still early CPO, AI power semiconductors, and humanoids. $MU $SNDK $TSLA $NVDA $LITE $AAOI $VRT https://t.co/SZTc5Tpug6

Jefferies: Ayar Labs sees CPO ramps still starting in C28 and shipping in much larger quantities in C29. $LITE $COHR $NVDA $MTSI $AMD

Jensen Huang just mapped out the chain of companies needed to power the AI revolution (Save this). His message is that AI is becoming a new industrial system that requires manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, financing and an enormous…

Goldman Sachs: companies we visited see pricing competition remaining healthy, with 800G optical module pricing decline within single digits in 2027, and 1.6T optical module price to sustain at $700+. $COHR $LITE $AAOI $MTSI

Mizuho: Optical > EML Market Share Dynamics: EML chips remain the workhorse for AI data center optical interconnects, supporting 800G and emerging 1.6T/3.2T architectures, though its share is expected to decline from ~62% in 2025 to ~45%…

Evercore ISI: AI networking to be the highest growth segment within AI data center semis the next 5 years. $SMTC $CRDO $GLW $NOK $CIEN $LITE $COHR

Nomura: EML & CW material and equipment value chain $AXTI $COHR $LITE $ASML $AMAT $LRCX

Here are some of the important takeaways from Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026 and Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference this week: > Demand for AI compute, infrastructure, and hardware is described as vastly outpacing…

Here are some of the important takeaways from Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026 and Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference this week: > Demand for AI compute, infrastructure, and hardware is described as vastly outpacing…

LightCounting: The latest data from transceiver suppliers, shown in the figure below, illustrates the new record set in Q2 2026 and our estimates for the rest of the year. Sales of Ethernet transceivers account for about 80% of the total…

AI inference is about to create a second trillion dollar supply chain because inference is expected to rise from 30% of demand in 2023 to 75% by 2030 (Save this). That means every chatbot, coding assistant, search engine and AI agent will…

Please give @awodias a follow. They are at CIOE 2026 and providing a lot of useful information 👍 CPO market expected to grow from ~$90 million in 2025 to >$110 billion in 2031, or ~230% CAGR '25-'31. $TSM $LITE $COHR $AVGO $NVDA $AMD…

President of Global Business Units at Lumentum says laser supply will not catch up to demand for another couple years: "In 2028, the scale up is going to happen, and going to drive yet another 3 to 4x of increase of demand. So we really do…

No AI ❌️ used. I listen to all of the conversations carefully and take notes. I will be sharing Day 2 takeaways from the conferences hosted by Goldman Sachs and Citi for all paid subscribers on X and substack. Join if you want to get in…

CIOE 2026: major products within the optical communication industry $GLW $LITE $COHR $AVGO $MRVL $CRDO $SMTC

My favorite Photonics stock. $LITE https://t.co/bYUrd0M66m https://t.co/UgKvEXi5or

CVP of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations at AMD, Matt Ramsay, says copper will continue to be used for quite some time: "I do not think you will see it be a point-in-time thing where everybody just decides as an industry, okay, no…

Citi: Scale-out should be one of the major scenarios in the global datacom optical interconnects market due to expanding AI datacenter; scale-up should emerge and become vital $LITE $COHR $NVDA

Photonics never left. $LITE $COHR $AAOI https://t.co/wTaTxTmvXx

1.6T to be the leader in volume by 2028 in global datacom optical interconnects. Expanding to 45% of the market by 2030. $AAOI $LITE $COHR $NVDA https://t.co/Eq3RQ4s69W

UBS: the industry is progressing toward mass production for scale-out from now through 2027, hybrid scale up in 2028-29, and full CPO scale up in 2029-30. $LITE $COHR $NVDA $AMD $AAOI

Just a reminder from optical earnings: -> $LITE: "Lasers will remain effectively sold out for the foreseeable future despite our rapid capacity expansion." -> $COHR: "The demand is robust across almost every single product across data…

Optics is one of the strongest parts of the AI buildout, because every new GPU cluster needs far more high speed connections than the last one (Save this). The table shows global optical module shipments rising from 449,492 thousand units…

Nvidia is prepaying billions for a material that most people have never heard of (Save this). Indium phosphide is the only material that efficiently turns electricity into laser light at fiber wavelengths and silicon cannot do it, so every…

$CCXI valuation is being disrespected right now and I see asymmetry in the trade. Humanoid valuations (Aug 2026): Tesla Optimus — no standalone; Tesla ~$1.38T Figure AI — $39B Unitree — public, ~$33–37B NEURA — ~$7B Apptronik — ~$5.5B 1X —…